SFTC Picks for Wednesday, March 20

Well wouldn't you know it: BYU finally decided to play some basketball.  Where was that all season when it really mattered?  Where was that in the WCC tournament?  Washington should have won that prop!!!

Also, just a reminder to visit the Basketball Games page by clicking on the corresponding tab near the top of the page.  We're analyzing all of the teams in the field of 68 and will be giving our final four predictions and other valuable information.  We hope you will refer your friends to the site and join our group for Tournament Challenge.

Our top 3 "stash" picks are:

1. NCAAM:  Indiana St. free throws made or tie
2. NBA:  Boston Celtics
3. NCAAM:  Baylor wins by double digits

Our picks for all props:

1. Other:  5 goals or more
• This is game 7 of this playoff series between these two teams.  The number of regulation goals in the first 6 games were 5, 2, 3, 8, 6, 6.  So the 5+ option has won 4 out of 6 times.  I'll take my chances with the 5+ option. 
• Confidence:  50%
2. Other:  Boston Red Sox or tie
• If the tie option loses this time, it is the last time I will pick it.  I am taking it this time because Boston has the better record in spring training and the Yankees nearly got blanked by the Phillies yesterday.
• Confidence:  50%
3. Other:  Any other number
• The last time these two teams played, 3 runs were scored during innings 4 - 6.  Most of the runs scored in these spring training games come in the 4th - 6th innings, and I think these teams are capable of scoring more than 2 runs in 3 innings.
• Confidence:  50%
4. *Soccer: Varese Win
• Varese leads Novaro by 7 points in the Serie B table.  The last time they played at Novaro the game finished in a 1-1 draw but this match will be at Varese which I think will give them the advantage and the victory.
• Confidence: 40%
5. *NCAAM:  LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds
• The play-in rounds games yesterday were great games.  This one should be as well.  LIU is favored by 2 in this game, has a better home and road records, and averages more ppg than James Madison.  James Madison is also without their leading scorer and rebounder for the first half because he was arrested over the weekend.  I like LIU in what may be a tight game.
• Confidence:  60%
6. NCAAM:  Indiana St. free throws made or tie
• Indiana St. averages 15.5 free throws made per game.  Iowa is favored by 13 in this game, but I think that is far too generous.  Indiana St. has some impressive wins, including against Creighton, Witchita St., Miami, and Ole Miss.  This game is at Iowa, but Indiana St. should easily cover, if not win.
• Confidence:  80%
7. *NHL:  Tampa Bay Lightning
• The Lightning are really picking up steam over their last few games.  The Maple Leafs have not done well lately.  They have gone 0 - 3 - 2 in their last 5, and have conceded 20 goals in that span.  
• Confidence: 50%
8. NBA:  Heat winning margin
• Tristan Thompson is averaging 11.5 ppg but in his last 10 games he is up close to 14 ppg including 20 points in his last outing.  This is a tough choice, especially since the last two meetings between Cleveland and Miami have been Heat victories by 2 and 4 points.  But those games were with Kyrie Irving who is likely out for the season.  And Lebron loves playing in Cleveland.  He plays there with something to prove.  Lebron should have a good game and I think Miami will win by close to 20 points.
• Confidence: 50%
9. *NHL:  Minnesota Wild
• The Wild have done great on the road and have won consistently on SFTC.  The Red Wings seem to disappoint a lot when they are featured on here.
• Confidence: 50%
10. NCAAM:  Mercer wins or single digit loss
• Do you remember the leaderboard swipe that Mercer handed out a week or so ago?  Let's hope that doesn't happen again here.  Tennessee is favored by 9 and is at home for this game.  These teams match up pretty well on paper, so I'm taking Mercer to keep it close.
• Confidence:  50%
11. *NBA:  Memphis Grizzlies
• The Thunder are coming off a loss to Denver and are playing the second night of a back-to-back.  The Grizzlies have lost only 8 games at home this season and are in a battle with the Clippers for 3rd place in the west.  OKC is a better team, no doubt about that, but I think this will turn out as a Grizzlies victory.
• Confidence: 50%
12. NBA:  Boston Celtics
• The Celtics are coming off a heart breaking loss to Miami and are likely to take out all their frustration on the Hornets.  Jason Terry will want to have a bounce back game after being posterized by Lebron.  Lets hope the curse of Brandon Knight does not lead to the The Jet getting injured.  I think the Celtics should win easily.
• Confidence: 80%
13. NBA:  Dallas Mavericks
• This should be a close game.  The Mavs are making a late run at the playoffs and are suddenly only 3 games back of 8th place.  If they want to make it they need to win their games at home, which is what I think they will do tonight against the Nets.  Brooklyn is fighting for playoff position, but they will not be as desperate to win this game as the Mavs will be.  The Nets are also only 10-14 against teams from the Western Conference.
• Confidence: 60%
14. NCAAM:  Baylor wins by double digits
• With Baylor being favored by 13 points in this game, I'm surprised, but thrilled that this is only a double digit prop.  Baylor should win this easily.  Long Beach State has a very soft schedule and does not have any high-caliber wins.  
• Confidence:  90%
15. *NCAAM:  Boise State Broncos
• I graduated from Boise State in 2005, and back then, their basketball team was truly awful.  I was really surprised to see them get in to the NCAA tournament this year.  It is the first time they have made it to the big dance as an at-large bid.  It is also the first time that La Salle has been to the tournament in 21 years.  Boise State beat Creighton by 13 and only lost to Michigan St. by 4, is favored by 2, and I'm going to root for my Alma Mater in this one.  
• Confidence:  60%
16. NHL:  Edmonton Oilers
• Edmonton is seeking their first playoff appearance in 7 years.  They need this win at home to get there.  San Jose has lost 5 in a row on the road, and has been very inconsistent this season. I just don't think they can be trusted, especially on the road.
• Confidence: 50%
17. NHL:  Dallas Stars
• The Stars seem to have turned things around after coming off a much needed win over the Flames, and are battling for playoff position.  The Avalanche have lost 3 straight at home, and are now last place in the West.
• Confidence: 50%
18. *NHL:  Chicago Blackhawks
• This is a battle game between the top two teams in the western conference.  The 24 game point streak and 11 game win streak that the Blackhawks started the season with was truly impressive and has made national headlines.  The Ducks have not received nearly the amount of attention that the Blackhawks have, but also have impressive streaks of their own.  The Ducks won at Chicago back in February.  I think the Blackhawks get revenge here in a tight, tough game.  
• Confidence: 60%
19. NBA:  Phoenix Suns
• Maybe the best thing for these two franchises would be to lose the rest of their games on purpose just to give them a better chance at getting the #1 pick.  Both these teams can flush their seasons down the toilet and hope for something better in the future.  I give the edge to the Suns who are playing at home and coming off of a 20 point blowout of the Lakers.
• Confidence: 60%
20. *NCAAM:  Detroit 3 pointers made or tie
• Detroit averages 7.25 3-pointers made per game.  Arizona State is favored by 4 in this game.  The game is at Arizona St., but Detroit is a great team, and should cover here.
• Confidence:  60%

Props marked with a * are also featured on Streak It Up.