SFTC picks for Tuesday, March 12

I have updated my picks to reflect the current lineup on SFTC.  

Well, I had pretty good day yesterday, going 12 - 5 overall, but only 1 - 2 on my top picks.  I really didn't see the Nets losing that game, but I can never seem to stay away from the "95+% curse".  For those of you who don't know what that is, if a pick has over 95% and is a really hot pick, it is usually best to stay away, since that pick more often than not, ends up being the wrong pick.  

There are not a ton of super good picks for tomorrow.  If you have a really high streak, I would sit out the day, unless some great picks are added later.

My top 3 "stash" picks are:

1. Soccer:  AC Milan advances
2. NCAAM:  Wright St. Raiders W/SDL
3. NBA:  Memphis Grizzlies

My picks for all props:

1. Other:  Ak Bars Kazan
• Ak is currently down  0 - 2 in the series.  They lost the first two at home and now must go on the road.  They are favored in this game, I highly doubt they go down 0 - 3 in the series.  I wouldn't pick this with a high streak though.
• Confidence: 60%
2. Other:  Dominican Republic wins by 3+ runs
• Italy just lost to the USA by 5 and the Dominican Republic just beat Puerto Rico by 2.  The Dominican Republican definitely has the more talented lineup and should easily cover here.
• Confidence: 70%
3. Soccer:  AC Milan advances
• Since AC Milan leads in aggregate 2 - 0, it will take a monstrous effort from Barcelona in order to advance.  If AC Milan scores 1, Barcelona would have to win by 3 just for the chance to go to extra time and if necessary penalty kicks.  Barcelona is a great team, but given the facts, it would take an unbelievable effort for Barcelona to advance, and AC Milan is no pushover.
• Confidence: 70%
4. Soccer:  Any Other Player
• It is highly doubtful that no goal will be scored in the first half.  Messi and Sharaaway are the leading scorers for their teams, but both teams have very capable scorers.  I wouldn't put a high streak on this though.
• Confidence: 60%
5. Soccer:  Schalke 04
• Schalke is -154 to win.  The last game between these two ended in a 1 - 1 draw.  Schalke is definitely the better team, but did lose one of their best players to a MCL tear.  The game could end in a draw and then be decided by extra time and/or penalty kicks.  I'll give the edge to Schalke to win in regular time though.   
• Confidence: 60%
6. Soccer:  2+ goals in the 2nd half
• As of now I'm going with 2+ goals.  Check how things go in the first half though, and check back at halftime.
• Confidence: 50%
7. NCAAW:  Notre Dame
• This should be a very close game between two the top powerhouses in women's college basketball.  These two have met twice this season.  The first was decided by 1 point, and the second went to triple overtime.  Notre Dame won both of those games.  This game is basically a home game for UConn, but I'm giving the edge to Notre Dame.  It could really go either way though, so I wouldn't put a long streak on this one.
• Confidence: 50%
8. NCAAW:  Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis or tie
• This is another tough prop.  Kaleena averages about a point more per game than Skylar.  In the first half of their first meeting this season, Skylar had 2 more points than Kaleena, and in the first half of the second game, Kaleena had two more points than Skylar.  I'm giving the edge to Kaleena here because she has the tie option and UConn is virtually at home.
• Confidence: 50%
9. NCAAM:  South Florida Bulls
• In their only meeting this season, Seton Hall won by 8 at home back in January.  These two teams have identical records in the Big East.  The line on this game is dead even, but I give the edge to South Florida because they have looked impressive in their last few games, beating UConn and going to OT with Cincinnati.
• Confidence:  60%
10. NCAAM:  LIU Brooklyn
• These teams split their regular season results, with Mt. St. Mary's winning at home by 12 and LIU won at home by 14.  This game is virtually a home game for LIU and they are favored by 4.
• Confidence:  60%
11. NHL:  New York Rangers
• The Rangers have been very impressive lately.  Their most recent win came on the road against the Washington Capitals.  They are better than the Sabres in practically every category.
• Confidence: 70%
12. NHL:  Carolina Hurricanes
• The Capitals have lost 2 in a row and seem to lose a lot when featured on SFTC.  The Hurricanes have had great success lately, are at the top of their division, and are better in most statistics.
• Confidence: 60%
13. NBA:  Washington Wizards
• The Cavs are without Kyrie Irving and will miss him for a few weeks.  The Wizards will have John Wall back, and possibly have Bradley Beal back as well.  The Cavs are favored by 1, which doesn't mean much, and without Irving, I have to give the edge to the Wizards here.
• Confidence: 70%
14. NHL:  Tampa Bay Lightning
• Both of these teams have really struggled of late.  The Lightning are just 1 - 7 in their last eight games.  The Panthers, however, are the worst in the league.  The Lightning have won 6 straight over the Panthers.  They are the better team, and should get the win here.
• Confidence: 60%
15. NHL:  Pittsburgh Penguins
• Every time the Bruins are featured on SFTC, they either lose or barely pull out wins against inferior competition.  I think the SM is telling us something, and this could be a trap if you take Boston.  I'm going with the Penguins here at home.
• Confidence: 60%
16. NHL:  Toronto Maple Leafs
• For whatever reason, the Jets have a better road record than at home.  They are just 1 - 5 in their last 6 home games.  The Maple Leafs won the previous meeting between these two.  I expect them to win again, with superior goal-tending.
• Confidence: 60%
17. NHL:  Minnesota Wild
• The Ducks have been great at home, but have struggled on the road.  The Wild have done well at home and have won 4 straight there.  The Ducks won both of this year's previous meetings, but they were both at home.  Given the road woes of the Ducks and the home success of the Wild, I'm taking the Wild in this one.
• Confidence: 50%
18. NHL:  St. Louis Blues
• The Blues just beat the Sharks on Saturday.  The Sharks have lost 3 straight, and are just not that consistent on offense.  Given the Sharks' struggles, I give the Blues the edge in this one.
• Confidence: 50%
19. NBA:  Milwaukee Bucks
• The Bucks are favored by 2 at home.  They should have J.J. Reddick back for this game, but will likely be missing Ilyasova and Sanders.  The Mavericks have not won 4 straight road games in over a year, and have lost 3 of 4 this season to the Bucks.  I'll take the Bucks at home here.
• Confidence:  60%
20. Other:  USA wins by 2+ runs
• The USA seems to have found their rhythm after their initial loss to Mexico.  Puerto Rico has some talented players such as Carlos Beltran, and Angel Pagan.  This is a tough one to call, but given the USA's recent form, I'll take them to win by 2+ since the game is in Miami. 
• Confidence: 50%
21. NCAAW:  Notre Dame first to 10 points
• Notre Dame usually goes on a run to start the second half.  Yesterday's game against Louisville was a prime example.  This is really a toss-up though.  Check back at halftime for updates.
• Confidence: 50%
22. NHL:  Dallas Stars
• The Predators are in a real slump lately, and recently lost 2 of their top scorers.  I like Dallas at home here.
• Confidence: 70%
23. NCAAM:  Wright St. Raiders W/SDL
• Valparaiso is currently favored by 8.  Both times these teams played this season, Valparaiso won by 6 and 7 points.  I definitely think Valparaiso will win, but given the history between the two teams and the fact that this is the conference tournament final, I'm taking Wright State to keep it closer than 10.  
• Confidence:  70%
24. NCAAM:  South Dakota State Jackrabbits
• I don't know if you could have any other two teams with more similar records and stats.  They split their regular season games.  I'm taking the Jackrabbits because this is a home game for them and they are favored by 1.
• Confidence:  60%
25. NCAAM:  DePaul Blue Demons
• Rutgers is favored by 3 and has a better record than DePaul, but DePaul did beat Rutgers by 6 at home.  DePaul is on a 6 game losing streak, but I have a feeling that ends with this game, and they get at least one win in the Big East tournament.
• Confidence:  50%
26. NHL:  Los Angeles Kings
• The Kings have already beaten the Coyotes once on the road this season.  They should have Quick back in net for them this game.  Last year's champs should get the win here.
• Confidence: 70%
27. NBA:  Memphis Grizzlies
• The Grizzlies are on fire lately.  They are 9 - 1 in their last 10 and have 4 in a row, including a win over Portland.  The main reason for their success is their great defense.  They are currently only favored by 2, but I they should easily cover here.
• Confidence: 70%