SFTC picks for Thursday, March 14

All props that were added since last night have been added here with write-ups.  Note:  the Trailblazers vs. Knicks prop was removed.

Our picks did pretty well yesterday, going 14 - 6.  Most of the losses were so close to being wins too.  That's how this game is though.  

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Our top 3 "stash" picks are:

1. NCAAM:  Georgetown winning margin or Tie
2. NCAAM:  Purdue winning margin
3. NHL:  Los Angeles Kings

Our picks for all props:

1. Golf:  Jim Furyk or Tie
• The tie option seems to win more often than not on a 9 hole golf prop.  These two tee off of hole 10, and the prop is for holes 10 - 18, so there will be no chance to see how the first nine play out.  They are both pretty even and consistent from what I've observed, but Furyk did have the better result in the last tournament.  
• Confidence: 60%
2. NCAAM:  Illinois Fighting Illini
• Minnesota is favored by 2, and won at Illinois by 17 back in January.  Minnesota lost to Illinois at home by 4 in February.  These teams have the same in-conference record, and have both played inconsistently this season.  I'm giving the edge to Illinois since this is a virtual home game for them.
• Confidence:  50%
3. NCAAM:  Georgia Tech Yellowjackets
• Georgia Tech is favored by 2 in this game, but lost by 2 to BC on the road in their only meeting this season.  This is definitely more of a home game for Georgia Tech than for Boston College.  This is a tough pick though, because they both have similar records and ppg averages.  I'm just giving the slight edge to Georgia Tech since they'll have more of a home crowd.
• Confidence:  50%
4. NCAAM:  Georgetown winning margin or Tie
• This could end up being a close game.  I just like Georgetown with the tie option.  They are playing outstanding basketball right now and are well-rested coming into this game.
• Confidence:  70%
5. NCAAM:  Iowa St. Cyclones
• Iowa St. is currently favored by 1.  Both of these teams won by nearly 20 points at home in their regular season games.  Both teams have very similar road records and overall records.  Iowa St. has been playing a bit better than Oklahoma of late so I'm giving them the edge here.
• Confidence:  50%
6. NCAAM:  Georgia Bulldogs
• Georgia beat LSU by 9 in their only meeting this season, and are favored by 1 in this game.  They have been playing well lately, as evidenced by their defeat of Kentucky.  
• Confidence:  60%
7. Golf:  Zach Johnson or Tie
• Johnson is the better golfer in my opinion.  The tie option can be huge in 18 holes as well.
• Confidence: 60%
8. Soccer:  3 Goals or More
• Spurs have slowly been moving their way up the EPL table led by Gareth Bale who has played better than almost anyone else in Europe as of late.  Spurs have a 3-0 lead on Inter and will most likely play a defensive minded game, but I expect them to still get a goal.  Inter will need to score quick and often and in desperation mode should find the net on at least two occasions.
  
• Confidence 60%
9. NCAAM:  Pittsburgh Panthers
• Pitt has a great history of success against Syracuse, winning 14 of their previous 18 meetings, the most recent by 10 at home.  Pitt finished the season on a 4 game winning streak, and Syracuse's end-of-the-season form was anything but great.  
• Confidence:  70%
10. NCAAM:  Kansas wins by 20+
• Texas Tech just had a great win over West Virginia in the first round of the conference tournament.  In their meetings this season, Kansas won by 16 on the road, and by 37 at home. This will be more like a home game for Kansas, and they are favored by 21.  The favorite doesn't always win, though, as evidenced by Georgia Tech. this morning.  Kansas can easily win this by 20+, they just can't come out flat like the did against Baylor in their final game of the regular season.
• Confidence:  70%
11. Soccer:  Chelsea: Wins by 2 goals or more
• I never know what to expect from Chelsea. On Sunday they played an amazing second half of soccer against Man U, but often against lesser opposition they play down to the competition.  Chelsea fell to Steaua Bucuresti in the first leg of the competition 1-0.  Steaua Bucuresti is no slob.  They lead the Romanian league right now by 12 points.  But this fixture is being played at Stamford Bridge which should give the Blues an advantage.  I think Chelsea will win but I don't feel too confident about this pick.
• Confidence:  50%
12. NCAAM:  Purdue winning margin
• Nebraska is one of the worst teams in the Big 10 besides Penn State.  Purdue has some high quality wins in conference, and should win this comfortably.  They are favored by 6 in this game.  Nebraska averages 5.1 3s made per game and lost to Purdue at home by 9.
• Confidence:  70%
13. NHL:  Pittsburgh Penguins
• The Penguins are doing what it takes to win, and are 8 - 2 in their last 10.  The slumping Maple Leafs are just 5 - 4 - 1 in their last 10.  The Penguins will likely be without Malkin again, but they have done ok without him so far.  
• Confidence: 60%
14. NCAAM:  Villanova win or single digit loss
• Louisville is currently favored by 10, but Villanova beat them by 9 at home in their only meeting this season.  Villanova has wins over other top teams in the Big East as well.  Louisville won this tournament last year, and has a good chance to do it again.  I definitely think they win this game, but it should be a tight one.
• Confidence:  70%
15. NCAAM:  11 points or more
• Both of these teams have scorers that could easily get this many points in a half.  My best guess of who it will be is Russ Smith or Peyton Siva.
• Confidence:  70%
16. Other:  United States
• Both of these teams have powerful offenses.  The USA has the advantage when it comes to pitching, but Dickey got lit up in his last start against Mexico.  If he has a similar outing this time, the game will get out of hand quick.  This could be a trap game, so I wouldn't put a high streak on it.
• Confidence:  50%
17. NHL:  Tampa Bay Lightning
• The Islanders do much better at home than on the road.
• Confidence: 50%
18. NHL:  Winnipeg Jets
• The Jets seem to always win when they are featured on SFTC, especially when they are at home.
• Confidence: 60%
19. NBA:  Mavericks: 3 Pointers made or tie
• Assuming the Spurs are playing without Tony Parker again this game should be close.  I'm predicting the Spurs will win by single digits, and since the Mavs are averaging 7.5 triples a game, this should be a close pick.  But the fact that the Spurs may be without their leading scorer, I think the game will be pretty close and the Mavs will make a few threes.
• Confidence:  50%
20. NCAAM:  35 points or more
• I would check to see how things go in the first half.  Usually more points are scored in the second half though, especially if the game is close.
• Confidence:  60%
21. NHL:  Anaheim Ducks
• The Ducks have been winning consistently, but it may prove difficult against the Dallas Stars.  The Stars have won 4 straight and 7 of the last 8 against the Ducks.  The Stars did just lose an ugly one at home to the Predators though.
• Confidence: 50%
22. NCAAM:  Iowa wins by double digits
• Northwestern has just been playing some really bad basketball lately.  They are coming into this game with an eight game losing streak.  Iowa is favored by 10, and beat Northwestern by 20 on the road and by 14 at home.  This is a virtual home game for Northwestern, but given their form and the past history between these teams, I think Iowa wins by at least 10.
• Confidence:  60%
23. NCAAM:  Oklahoma St. Cowboys
• These teams split their regular season match-ups.  Baylor made it to the championship game last year but lost to Missouri.  Oklahoma St. is 10 - 1 against Baylor in neutral-site locations.  Oklahoma St. is favored by 3 in this game.
• Confidence:  60%
24. NCAAM:  Marquette Golden Eagles
• Marquette won by 8 in their only meeting this season, and are currently favored by 3.  Notre Dame will be very inspired to win this since it is potentially their last game in this tournament as they head to the ACC next year.  It will most likely be a close game, but I give the edge to Marquette.  Their recent almost loss to St. Johns is a bit concerning though.
• Confidence:  60%
25. Tennis:  Roger Federrer
• I'm going with Federrer here because he is favored and because Nadal hasn't been back very long from his knee surgery, and is mostly untested.
• Confidence: 60%
26. NHL:  Los Angeles Kings
• The Kings are clearly the better team.  The Sharks are just off so far this season.  The Kings are 7 - 3 in their last 10.  The Sharks are only 3 - 4 - 3 in their last 10.
• Confidence: 70%
27. NCAAM:  Oregon Winning Margin or Tie
• Oregon won both regular season meetings between these two.  Washington averages about 5.1 3s made per game, and Oregon is favored by 4 in this game.  Washington nearly lost to Washington St. last night, and have been somewhat of a disappointment this season.  Oregon lost their last 2 games of the season, but they will get back on track here and should cover, especially with the tie option.
• Confidence:  70%