Sunday, May 26, 2013

Notice

Sorry everyone, I'm on vacation so I haven't posted for a couple of days and probably won't post until Wednesday.  We wish you the best of luck!  Well try to give tips on Twitter.

Friday, May 24, 2013

SFTC Picks for Saturday, May 25

Well once again we didn't have time to do full write ups.  We did go 14 - 7 overall yesterday, including winning our top stash pick though.  Good luck on a loaded Saturday!

Our top stash pick:

  1. Soccer: Bayern Munich

Our picks for every prop:
  1. Other:  No, at least 1 team doesn't score in innings 1 - 3
  2. Other:  Oklahoma wins by 5+ runs
  3. Other:  Michigan
  4. MLB:  Toronto Blue Jays
  5. LAX:  Cornell Big Red
  6. Soccer:  Bayern Munich
  7. Soccer: German or No Goal
  8. Soccer: Bayern Munich
  9. MLB:  Colorado Rockies
  10. MLB:  Pittsburgh Pirates
  11. LAX:  Syracuse Orange
  12. Other:  Alabama loses by 1 or wins
  13. Soccer:  Chelsea Win or draw
  14. NHL:  Chelsea win or draw
  15. MLB:  Washington Nationals
  16. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals
  17. NHL:  Chicago Blackhawks
  18. NBA:  Memphis Grizzlies
  19. NBA:  Yes either team leads by 5+ at halftime
  20. Other:  Arizona State wins by 3+ runs
  21. MLB:  Seattle Mariners
  22. MLB:  Arizona Diamondbacks
  23. NBA:  Yes both teams score 22+ points in the third quarter
  24. Other:  Any Other Result
  25. Other:  Any Other Result

Thursday, May 23, 2013

SFTC Picks for Friday, May 24

Happy Friday Streakers!  Sorry no time for writeups, but all of our picks are posted.  Good luck!

Our top stash pick:

  1. NBA:  Pacers 3-pointers made or tie

Our picks for every prop:

  1. Golf:  Rickie Fowler or tie
  2. Other:  NC State wins by 2+ runs
  3. Golf:  Jason Dufner
  4. Soccer:  Sligo Rovers win
  5. Other:  Georgia Tech Yellowjackets
  6. Other:  4 strikeouts or more
  7. MLB:  Baltimore Orioles
  8. MLB:  New York Yankees
  9. NHL:  Senators goals scored or tie
  10. NHL:  Any Other Player
  11. MLB:  Oakland A's @ Houston Astros or Tie
  12. MLB:  Pittsburgh Pirates
  13. NBA:  Pacers 3-pointers made or tie
  14. NBA:  Yes LeBron James and Paul George both score 11+ points in the first half
  15. MLB:  Arizona Diamondbacks
  16. NBA:  3 or 4
  17. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals
  18. MLB:  Texas Rangers
  19. MLB:  Colorado Rockies

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

SFTC Picks for Wednesday, May 22

Hopefully you followed us to some greenage yesterday!  We gave you two solid baseball wins with our top stash picks, and had a pretty good overall picks record, including winning the last 6 of the day.  We are late in getting picks posted today so we missed most of the morning props, but we did post on Twitter about our Arkansas pick this morning.  All picks are now posted.  Good luck!

Our top stash pick:

  1. NBA:  Pacers win or single digit loss

Our picks for every prop:
  1. MLB:  Arizona Diamondbacks
    • The DBacks hold the edge in the season series against the Rockies 5 - 4.  They send Trevor Cahill to the mound today to try and win their second series against the Rockies this season.  Cahill has been solid, going 3 - 1 with a 1.64 ERA over his last 5 starts.  The line for this game has moved a bit, opening at Rockies -105, and currently sitting at Rockies -129.  With De La Rosa pitching and Betancourt, the Rockies' closer, out due to injury, the DBacks should get the win today.
    • Confidence: 65%
  2. MLB:  San Francisco Giants
    • The Giants haven't swept a series against the Nationals in 5 years.  Is that on the minds of the Giants players?  Who knows, but probably.  They have a great chance to so this afternoon.  The starting pitchers, Gio Gonzalez and Madison Bumgarner, have gone 3 - 2 with a 4.01 ERA, and 4 - 2 with a 3.09 ERA, respectively, this season.  Bumgarner has been great at home, and Gonzalez has really struggled on the road.  Pablo Sandoval and Marco Scutaro have been tearing up the Nationals with their hitting, and the trend should continue tonight.  
    • Confidence: 70%
  3. MLB:  Tampa Bay Rays
    • Evan Longoria extended his hitting streak to 15 games yesterday.  He should most definitely extend it to 16 games today with Mark Buehrle pitching for the Blue Jays.  Buehrle hasn't won in over a month and is 0 - 3 with a 6.68 ERA over his last 5 starts.  Hellickson has a better record but worse ERA over his last 5 than Buehrle, but the Rays have won 7 of their last 10 on the road against the Blue Jays. 
    • Confidence: 60%
  4. MLB:  New York Yankees
    • The Orioles got a much needed win last night, but unfortunately, I think it doesn't last.  At least not with Kuroda on the mound for the Yankees.  He is 6 - 2 with a 1.99 ERA on the season while Jason Hammel has gone 5 - 2 with a 5.72 ERA on the season.  Hammel started the season well, but has gotten shelled in his last two starts, and his ERA has increased by 1.62 over those games. 
    • Confidence: 70%
  5. MLB:  Yes 1+ run scored in the first inning
    • These two teams have met 5 times this season.  A run was scored in the 1st inning in 3 of those games, including the last 2, both by the Yankees.  The Yankees will be most likely to score in this 1st inning, since I don't think the Orioles will score off of Kuroda.  In reality, this is still somewhat of a tossup prop.
    • Confidence: 55%
  6. NHL:  Ottawa Senators
    • I'm really unsure about this pick.  The Penguins won both games at home.  The Senators won at home in the second overtime in the last game.  I just think the Senators will win a second game at home.  
    • Confidence: 50%
  7. NHL:  0 or 1 goal
    • In each of the first two games in Pittsburgh, 3 goals were scored in the first period.  In game 3 in Ottawa, 0 goals were scored in the first period.  So take your pick.  I just think this will be another tight game, so I'll take my chances with 0 or 1 goals scored in the first period. 
    • Confidence: 50%
  8. NBA:  Pacers win or single digit loss
    • With Wade not 100% and previous results between these teams, taking the Pacers to cover is a pretty safe bet.  The Pacers are one of two teams in the NBA to have a winning record against the Heat in the regular season.  They also took the Heat to 6 games, leading 2 - 1 at one point, in their playoff series last year.  This series will be physical and tough.  I doubt the Heat will blow this team out like they have the Bucks and the Bulls.  
    • Confidence: 75%
  9. NBA:  Pacers first half field goals made
    • The Pacers have averaged about 17 field goals made in the first half during the postseason.  LeBron only averages 24 points a game or 12 points per half.  Now granted he usually gets more points in the first half than the second half, but I really don't think he'll get 17.  I wouldn't risk a big streak on this though.
    • Confidence: 60%
  10. NBA:  49 points or fewer
    • You'll defintely want to see how the first half goes, but I expect this to be a lower scoring series than the Heat's previous two.    
    • Confidence: 65%
  11. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals
    • Both of the pitchers for this game are somewhat unknown and have little major league experience.  Lyons went 2 - 1 with a 4.47 ERA at triple-A Memphis and now gets his shot to start in the major leagues.  Smith comes from a similar situation, though he is 0 - 0 with a 15.63 ERA.  With the pitching mostly unknown, I'm relying on the Cardinals' offense to make a pick for this game.  They have better hitters and should get the win tonight and win this series.
    • Confidence: 70%

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

SFTC Picks for Tuesday, May 21

Many thanks to Jim for doing writeups yesterday.  Tomorrow is my last final, so after that I'll be able to dedicate more time to the site.   It's late so I'll finish the rest in the morning, but here are the first 5 to get you started.  Enjoy!

Our top stash pick:
  1. MLB:  Cincinnati Reds
  2. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals
Our picks for all props:
  1. Other:  Kentucky wins or loses by 1
    • During the regular season, these teams played three games in succession in Oxford.  Kentucky won 2 of those games and lost the middle one 11 - 5.  This is the first game of the SEC tournament which is being played in Hoover, Alabama, and Ole Miss is just 1 - 2 on neutral fields, whereas Kentucky is 3 - 1 on neutral fields.  Only 5 of Kentucky's 24 losses have been by 1 run, so they may need to win the game to win this prop, but I'm just feeling Kentucky in this one, especially with the percentage being so high for Ole Miss.
    • Confidence:  65%
  2. Soccer:  Liberec Win
    • Liberec sits 3rd in the league table with a goal differential of +9.  Teplice sits in position 11 with a goal differential of -10.  These two did just play to a 2 - 2 draw back on April 16, but that match was a Cup match, not a league match, and it was at Teplice.  Liberec should get the win at home.
    • Confidence:  65%
  3. Soccer:  Shamrock Rovers Win
    • Shamrock is clearly favored in this match, but the teams sites were down so I couldn't check league table positions or goal differentials or other stats.  
    • Confidence:  50%
  4. MLB:  Baltimore Orioles
    •  Man the Orioles let one slip away from them last night.  I think they get revenge tonight and break out of their 7 game home losing streak by ending the Yankees' 3 game winning streak.  The Yankees send Phil Hughes to the mound, who has had a bad couple of starts recently, giving up 13 runs and 13 hits over just 6 innings.   The Orioles send Miguel Gonzalez to the mound who is just coming off the disabled list so he may be a tad rusty.  I think he'll be good enough to get the O's a win though.
    • Confidence: 70%
  5. MLB:  Toronto Blue Jays
    • They should have a prop about if Evan Longoria will extend his hitting streak to 15 games.  The guy is just on fire right now.  Unfortunately, I don't think his team wins tonight.  They lost to the Blue Jays last night, mostly because of their bullpen.  It has really been an issue for them this year.  Cobb actually pitches better at home than on the road, so since the Rays are on the road for this game, I like the Blue Jays.
    • Confidence:  70%
  6. MLB:  Cincinnati Reds
    • The line is currently at Reds -100, but the Reds should be favored by much more than that.  They have won 8 of the last 10 games at the Mets' stadium.  Mike Leake is 3 - 2 with a 3.72 ERA overall, but in his last four starts against the Mets he has posted a 1.65 ERA.  Jonathan Niese is 3 - 2 with a 5.40 ERA overall, but has gone 1 - 4 with a 5.61 ERA in his last four starts against the Reds, losing his last two at home.  Another story line to follow in this game is if Jay Bruce will extend his hitting streak to 12 games.
    • Confidence:  70%
  7. MLB:  Philadelphia Phillies
    • Normally I would have a high confidence percentage on any team against the Marlins, but one of the only teams they can beat is the Phillies.  I mean miracles really do happen when the Marlins, the worst team in all of baseball can beat the Phillies.  Not that the Phillies are one of the best teams by any stretch, but there are definitely a few teams that are worse than them.  But, the Marlins have beaten the Phillies 4 out of 8 times this season, including the last 2 straight, with the most recent being a 5 - 1 victory yesterday.  I think their mini win streak ends tonight though as Tyler Cloyd comes up from the minors to lead the Phillies to a win.
    • Confidence:  50%
  8. NHL:  New York Rangers
    • This series is looking an awful lot like the Rangers' first round playoff series against the Capitals.  They were down 0 - 2 in that series as well before winning the next two at home and eventually forcing a game 7 which they dominated 5 - 0.  They again find themselves down 0 - 2.  Can they comeback and win the series?  Most likely not.  They are 2 - 19 all-time at winning series in which they started 0 - 2.  However, they won't go down easy.  I think they'll at least take this game if not the next one.  Only time will tell.
    • Confidence: 70%
  9. MLB:  Los Angeles Dodgers
    • The line is currently at Dodgers -122.  Greinke is back on the mound to help the Dodgers win two in a row against his former team.  After missing about a month due to a broken collarbone, he had a pretty decent last start, though he only lasted 5 innings due to fatigue.  Hopefully he'll last longer this game, as the Dodgers can really use his strong pitching.  They've not been scoring a lot of runs, which combined with player injuries, has been the biggest contributor to their being last in the NL West.  Greinke is 2 - 0 with a 1.62 ERA on the season.  The Brewers counter with Hiram Burgos, who is 1 - 2 with a 6.58 ERA on the season.
    • Confidence:  70%
  10. MLB:  Houston Astros
    • Like the Marlins, the Astros are one of the worst in baseball.  The Royals haven't been great of late either, losing their last 4.  The Royals should win, but I'm taking a chance with the Astros.  Davis is 3 - 3 but with a 5.98 ERA, while Norris is 4 - 4 with a 4.32 ERA.  
    • Confidence:  50%
  11. MLB:  Chicago White Sox
    • The line for this game is close to even, with Chicago slightly favored at -100.  The White Sox won yesterday, and should do the same today with Doubront on the mound for the Red Sox.  The left hander is 3 - 1 with a 6.03 ERA overall and started out the season good, but has really struggled of late, going  0 - 1 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts.   Quintana has been pretty good for the White Sox, and with Adam Dunn and company finally finding their hitting stroke, I'm taking the White Sox.
    • Confidence:  70%
  12. NBA:  Orlando Magic or Chicago Bobcats
    • Even though the Magic and Bobcats are the 2 teams most likely to get the #1 Draft pick, the "favorites" hardly ever win the draft lottery.  Per @ESPNStreak, Any Other Team is a 55.1% favorite.  I hope the Bobcats get it, as they are the most in need, but I would not pick this with higher than a win 3 probably, as David Stern and the NBA always seem to screw the most deserving team out of a #1 pick.
    • Confidence: 50%
  13. MLB:  Arizona Diamondbacks
    • Although the Rockies are favored, I'm taking the Diamondbacks, as they have been a great road team, and lead the season series, 5 - 3.  
    • Confidence:  60%
  14. NBA:  San Antonio Spurs
    • The Spurs are favored by 5.5 points.  They won in dominant fashion in game 1 and held Zach Randolph to just 2 points!  He'll have to play better if Memphis is to have any chance at winning this series.  The Grizzlies have been in this position before, as they lost the first game to both the Clippers and Thunder and eventually won those series.  I think the Grizzlies will eventually figure out how to play against the Spurs, I just don't think it happens tonight.
    • Confidence: 70%
  15. NBA:  Tim Duncan
    • Mark Gasol had a decent game one of this series, but he's been pretty absent in these playoffs. Duncan on the other hand has been consistent as always.  He's one of the most consistent players in the NBA.  He may not be the most exciting player to watch, but he sure is dependable.
    • Confidence: 70%
  16. NHL:  San Jose Sharks
    • History is definitely on the Sharks's side for this game.  The home team has won every game of this series and both the Sharks and the Kings are undefeated at home this postseason.  This season, the Sharks went 17 - 2 - 5 at home.  Gotta go with the home team here.
    • Confidence: 70%
  17. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals
    • Amazingly, the Padres have been pretty good lately, winning their last 3 and 5 of 7 overall.  Sending Volquez to the mound, and with Wainwright starting for the Cardinals, should end that streak.  Wainwright is 5 - 3 with a 2.51 ERA on the season but is 3 - 2 with a 0.97 ERA in his last 5 starts against the Padres.  Volquez is just 3 - 4 with a 5.55 ERA.  The Cardinals lost yesterday, but are favorites at -135 tonight and should definitely get the win.
    • Confidence: 75%
  18. MLB:  San Francisco Giants
    • I'm torn on this pick.  Both pitchers have had great success against the opposing team.  Strasburg hasn't lost a start to the Giants, but the Nationals are dealing with several injuries and are struggling offensively lately.  Matt Cain has won and lost games to the Nationals, but the Giants have won his last 5 starts.  I'm rolling with the Giants because they are at home and have been better than the Nationals of late.
    • Confidence: 55%
  19. NBA:  93 points or more
    • 100 points were scored in game 1 of this series.  Still, you'll want to see how the first half goes and plan accordingly.
    • Confidence: 65%

Monday, May 20, 2013

New Week, Monday May 20

Well, it's the start of a new week, Happy Monday to everyone.  If you are like me, it is your favorite day of the week and I bet you are all thrilled to be back at work after such a boring weekend.  Today is actually a bit of a sad day.  Today is the first day of the English Premier League off-season.  No EPL soccer until the fall.  Yeah it makes me sad to think about, especially since my team finished the season off poorly and has a lot of question marks about their future.  Now I can focus all my attention on the NBA playoffs and Baseball, and focus a tiny bit of my attention on those other random props that come up.  Don't forget to check us out on Twitter (@TheFantasySC) and we will give additional picks there throughout the day and keep you updated on all things sports.
Well, good luck with your picks today, here are a few picks that you might want to consider.

  1. MLB:  Seattle Mariners
    • This may be a historic moment for me.  I don't know the last time that I ever picked the Seattle Mariners to win a game that wasn't against the Astros.  So congratulations Mariners, today, for the first time, I don't think you suck.  Well, at least I don't think the Mariners pitcher Hishshi Iwakuma sucks.  So far this season he is 5-1 with a 1.84 ERA.  The Indians on the other hand have been one of the hottest teams in baseball and have won 7 of their last 10 games including 4 straight.  The Tribe is hitting really well, which should make this matchup between the Mariners great pitcher and the excellent hitting of the Indians an exciting game to watch.  But I almost always have to give the edge to pitching.
    • Confidence: 60%
  2. MLB:  Tampa Bay Rays
    • The Blue Jays may be one of the biggest disappointment so far in the early part of the season.  Many people, including myself, expected them to be one of the best teams in the AL East competing for the pennant.  Well it has not quite turned out so nicely for the Jays in the early going.  Today they send one of their biggest off season acquisitions  RA Dickey to the mound.  Dickey has not been what they expected going 3-5 so far this season with an ERA nearing 5.  The Rays send their young pitcher Jake Odorizzi out to make just his third start in the big leagues.  I don't expect pitching in this game to be great, so it may come down to who can hit better, and for that reason, edge goes to the Rays.
    • Confidence: 60%
  3. MLB:  CC Sabathia: Strikeouts
    • I know two things, first, Sabathia doesn't give up a lot of hits and second, he gets a lot of his outs via strikeouts.  The prop is asking which total will be higher, Sabathia's strikeouts or the Orioles total hits in innings 1-3.  Well CC so far this season is averaging about 6 strikeouts a game.  Since this is one third of the game, we can predict that he will get about 2 strikeouts in the first 3 innings.  It is also safe to assume that if he is getting those strikeouts and his command is on tonight, then he will not be giving up too many hits.  This one may be close, but I gotta go with the Yankee's Ace.  
    • Confidence: 60%
  4. NHL:  Chicago Blackhawks
    • This series is tied 1-1 heading in to game three with each team winning one of the first two games 4-1.  The series heads off to Detroit tonight for a very important game 3.  The Red Wings will be on their home ice, but I don't expect that to matter much.  The Blackhawks are the better team and after losing just their second game in the playoffs, they should respond with a big win.
    • Confidence: 65%
  5. MLB:  Los Angeles Dodgers
    • This is a matchup of two 17-25 teams who are sending out their Aces tonight. The only difference between these two tonight is that the Dodger's Ace, Clayton Kershaw, is pitching like one this year, while the Brewer's man, Yovanni Gallardo is not looking so dominate.  When Kershaw has his stuff working, he can be near impossible to hit.  He can mix up his pitches and throw a mid-nineties fastball and then come back at you with a curveball in the sixties.  Neither team has been amazing this season so far and the Dodgers have been another one of the season's big disappointments, but Kershaw has been anything but disappointing and should help his team get the win tonight.
    • Confidence: 75%

Saturday, May 18, 2013

SFTC Picks for Sunday, May 19

We were on a roll yesterday.  We went 16 - 7 overall, although we did lose our top pick of 19 games or fewer on tennis.  The lacrosse matches handed out a lot of reds, as did Switzerland, though we were 1 of the 651 that picked Switzerland.  Hopefully you were able to check the site frequently yesterday, and we hope we helped you get some wins.  Let's keep it going!

We apologize for not doing writeups, but our time was limited.  Good luck!

Our top stash pick:
  1. MLB:  New York Yankees
  2. Soccer:  Sporting Kansas City Win

Our picks for every prop:
  1. Tennis:  Any Other Result
    • Nadal and Federer in a final. This is something we have seen before even if it has been awhile. Nadal owns the head to head battle, in dominating form on clay too. Federer I believe will have at least one good set in him to make up for his last match against Nadal but in the end Nadal wins another title.
    • Confidence: 70%
  2. Soccer: Arsenal Win
  3. LAX:  Denver loses by 1 or wins
  4. Soccer:  LA Galaxy win or draw
  5. MLB:  New York Yankees
  6. Golf:  Keegan Bradley or Sang-Moon Bae
  7. MLB:  Cincinnati Reds
  8. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals
  9. MLB:  Chicago Cubs
  10. Other:  Switzerland
  11. LAX:  Notre Dame Fighting Irish
  12. NHL:  New York Rangers
  13. NBA:  San Antonio Spurs
  14. NBA:  Tony Parker
  15. MLB:  Oakland A's
  16. MLB:  San Diego Padres
  17. MLB:  San Francisco Giants
  18. Soccer:  Sporting Kansas City Win
  19. NHL:  Ottawa Senators
  20. MLB:  Texas Rangers
  21. MLB:  Any Other Result
  22. MLB:  Tigers more hits in innings 3 - 5 or tie
  23. MLB:  Yes 1+ 7+ pitch plate appearance

SFTC picks for Saturday, May 18

Allright, we had a decent day yesterday, going 12 - 6 overall.  We hope you got green with the Diamondbacks.  We also added the Royals pretty last minute and they laid an egg tonight.  There were some pretty easy wins today though.  I just wish I wouldn't have changed my pick from the White Sox to the Royals.  I would have had a W5 heading into tomorrow.  Tomorrow should be a great day to just sit back, pick on games, and enjoy!  

Again as a reminder, if you haven't already, we invite you to follow us on Twitter (@TheFanstasySC), and follow our groups (on the left of the page).  We could really use your help to spread the word again so that people know we're back to blogging.  Please take some time to share our siter URL with your friends. Thanks!

The picks for the 2nd half of the day will be posted in the morning.  Good luck!  

Our top stash pick:
  1. Tennis:  19 games or fewer
Our picks for every prop:
    • Tennis:  Victoria Azarenka wins 2 - 0
      • Two top ten players take each other on in this semifinal matchup. The hard hitting Azarenka and the hometown favorite Errani. They have played 6 times in their careers with Errani's only victory coming back in 2008. This match will follow the more recent pattern with Errani struggling to keep pace with Azarenka. In the end Azarenka will be the one moving on.
      • Confidence: 70%
    • LAX:  Ohio State Buckeyes
      • Cornell did upset Maryland a few days ago, but Maryland was a big disappointment this season and I think they lost every time they were featured on Streak for the Cash.  Ohio State and Cornell both have identical records at 13 - 3.  Ohio State is 2 - 1 all time vs. Cornell.  They last played them in the 2008 NCAA tournament, which game they won 15 - 7.  Since the game is being played in Maryland, Cornell will probably have more of a crowd presence, but I think Ohio State can handle it and they'll play tougher and more physical than Maryland.
      • Confidence: 60%
    • Golf:  68 or fewer
      • Keegan Bradley had an amazing first round, shooting a 10 under par (60).  His second round was not nearly as impressive as he shot just a -1 (69), but he's still in the lead by 3 strokes.  It may be corny, but I'm going with the 68 or fewer following the odd numbered round (since he shot lower than 68 in round 1).  He'll also need to have another great round if he wants to maintain the lead and win this tournament. 
      • Confidence: 70%
    • Other:  Switzerland
      • I may really end up regretting this, but I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Switzerland.  Yes, the US is favored, but not by a lot.  Yes the U.S. just beat Russia 8 - 3, although they lost to Slovakia 4 - 1 the game before that.  However, I just have a feeling that Switzerland will win.  Perhaps I'm influenced too much by Canada getting beat a few days ago when practically everyone picked them to win.  Switzerland is undefeated so far in this competition while the U.S. has 2 losses.  All this being said, I'm not super confident about it, but I'm picking Switzerland.
      • Confidence: 35%   
    • MLB:  Cleveland Indians
      • With the Indians winning last night, they have now won 10 of 12 at home and 15 of their last 19 overall.  They have a great chance to continue that success today.  Seattle's starter, Joe Saunders, can't win on the road this season.  He's 0 - 4 with a 12.54 ERA on the road compared to 3 - 0 with a 0.94 ERA at home.  No, those numbers are not a joke.  The Indians are -165 favorites to win this game.  That's good enough for me. 
      • Confidence: 75%
    • MLB:  New York Yankees
      • For whatever reason, the Blue Jays cannot seem to beat the Yankees this season.  The Yankees are 7 - 1 against them this season, including the last 5 straight.  They blanked them yesterday 5 - 0.  Morrow will be back pitching for the Blue Jays after being out since May 5 with back and neck soreness.  Unfortunately, I don't think his return will be of much help.  They Yankees will get yet another win and continue their dominance of the Canadian side.
      • Confidence: 70%
    • MLB:  Chicago Cubs
      • The Mets suddenly won 2 games in a row after losing their previous 6.  They have won 3 in row only once this season though, and unfortunately I don't think they get the second time today.  Not with Hefner on the mound anyway.  He has yet to win a start.  In his last 7 starts he's gone 0 - 4 with a 4.61 ERA.  Feldman on the other hand has won his previous 4 starts while posting a 1.57 ERA over that span.  The Cubs, favorites at -140, should even up the series today.
      • Confidence: 70%
    • NHL:  Detroit Red Wings win or lose by 1
      • This series is turning out to be identical to the Penguins/Senators series.  Both first games have had a final score of 4 - 1.  Both first game props were the same as the second game props.  The Senators kept it within 1 yesterday.  Can the Red Wings do it today?  I think so.  
      • Confidence: 65%
    • NHL:  Yes Red Wings score 1+ goals in the 1st period
      • It's true that the Blackhawks don't give up many goals, let alone in the first period of games.  In game 1 of this series, the Red Wings scored their only goal in the 1st period.  They'll be desperate to win this game and even up the series so they'll come out attacking from the get-go.  This is really mostly a toss-up prop though.  
      • Confidence: 55%
    • Tennis:  19 games or fewer
      • An interesting matchup as Federer takes on a relative unknown in Paire. They have played each other twice in the just the last year with Federer easily winning both times. The only way Paire wins this match is if Federer loses it. All things considered, especially with the French Open around the corner, this match will one sided with Federer moving on to the final.
      • Confidence: 80%
    • LAX:  Syracuse wins by 2+ goals
      • Syracuse (14 - 3) faces Yale (12 - 4) in this semifinal showdown in Maryland.  Yale have trailed at some point in each of their 16 games this season.  They're coming off of an incredible come-from-behind win against Penn State.  I doubt Syracuse will give up a 4 point lead like Penn State did.  They're the #1 team for a reason.  They have won their last 4 games by 2+ goals.  They only thing that makes me nervous about this pick is that they did only beat Princeton and Cornell by 1.
      • Confidence: 60%
    • Other:   Any Other Horse
      • There are a few other horses that have decent odds of winning this race.  I'm not super positive about this one, but I'll roll with AOH.
      • Confidence: 60%
    • Other:   Any Other Horse
      • Orb is the clear favorite at 4-5 odds, but I'm going to be daring and take any other horse.  My main reason for not taking Orb is that he is in gate 1 and will most likely be boxed in on the inside.  He won the Kentucky Derby because he was on the outside and could come from behind on the outside.  Make no mistake though, Orb is the best horse in the field.
      • Confidence: 50%
    • MLB:  Arizona Diamondbacks
      • I'm sure the Marlins will have to win at some point, I just don't think it will be today.  They have lost 6 in a row now, but instead of the Marlins making history by winning, I think it will be the Diamondbacks' pitcher, McCarthy, making history by recording his first win this season, after losing or not getting a decision in his previous 9.  
      • Confidence: 80%
    • MLB:  Boston Red Sox
      • The Sox are currently the favorites at -111.  They won game one of this series 3 - 2 yesterday, but went just 1 - 3 in their first series against the Twins.  Dempster is 2 - 4 with a 3.75 ERA while Diamond is 3-3 with a 4.08 ERA.    
      • Confidence: 70%
    • MLB:  Detroit Tigers
      • Looking at the two pitchers for this game, I have to take the Tigers in this one.  Anibal Sanchez is 4 - 3 with a 2.05 ERA.  Justin Grimm is 2 - 3 with a 4.28 ERA.  The Rangers smoked the Tigers in game 1 of this series, but the Tigers came back and won a tight one last night.  The line is Tigers -115.  
      • Confidence: 65%
    • MLB:  Colorado Rockies
      • I think last time I picked against Lincecum I ended up losing, but I still don't trust his pitching this season.  He's still been inconsistent, as he was for much of last season.  Colorado's starting pitcher for this game is Tyler Chatwood, whom they have brought up from triple A ball.  He is 1 - 0 with a 3.00 ERA, while Lincecum is 3 - 2 with a 4.07 ERA.  I think the Rockies build on their win from last night and win 2 in a row.
      • Confidence: 60%
    • NBA:  Indiana Pacers
      • The Pacers are favored by 5.5 points in this game 6.  Clearly they want to win the series tonight and not have to play a game 7 in New York.  Anthony and the Knicks will fight hard, but they just haven't been able to beat the Pacers on the road.  Unfortunately, I think they come up short again tonight.
      • Confidence: 70%
    • NBA:  Carmello Anthony or Tie
      • Melo has clearly been the leading scorer for the Knicks, and probably has scored more points than the Pacers as well.  I really don't know the first half numbers, but I imagine he has at least tied if not had the lead at half.  Since this is win or go home time for the Knicks, I think Melo will go all out to try and get his team a win.  He should at least tie in this prop.
      • Confidence: 70%
    • MLB:  Kansas City Royals
      • Tommy Milone has lost his last 5 starts and is 3 - 5 with a 3.71 ERA on the season.  Ervin Santant is 3 - 2 with a 2.79 ERA.  The Royals really laid an egg last night, a game they should have easily won.  I'm giving them another chance to turn things around and even up this series.  
      • Confidence: 55%
    • NHL:  San Jose Sharks
      • After a crazy ending to game 2 that put the Sharks in an 0 - 2 hole, the Sharks return home where they have only lost 2 games in regulation all season, including 2 against the Kings.  The Sharks have proven that they can play with the Kings and I think they get a win tonight and defend their home ice.
      • Confidence: 70%
    • NBA:  Yes, at least 1 team makes 3+ 3-pointers in the third quarter
      • Here are the number of 3 pointers made in the third quarter of each game of this series.  Game 1: Pacers 2, Kincks 1.  Game 2: Pacers 3, Knicks 1.   Game 3: Pacers 4, Knicks 1.  Game 4: Pacers 2, Knicks 1.  Game 5: Pacers 2, Knicks 2.   So only 2 of the 5 games in this series had 3+ 3-pointers made in the third quarter.  The Knicks only had 1 in every game except their last one.  If a team gets 3+, it will be Indiana, and since they're at home, that's a good possibility.  I'm going to go with yes this time though, as both teams should be looking to score; Indiana to wrap up the series, and New York to force a game 7.
      • Confidence: 50%
    • Soccer:  San Jose Earthquakes Win
      • Last year the Earthquakes beat the the Rapids every time they played them, with scores of 2 - 1, 4 - 1, and 4 - 1.  They have not played this year yet, and although Colorado is one spot above them in the league table, I expect San Jose to win this one at home.
      • Confidence: 70%

    Friday, May 17, 2013

    SFTC picks for Friday, May 17

    Holy cow what a crappy day yesterday.  Ok, so it wasn't that bad.  We went 9 - 8.  We would have gotten every baseball pick right though if the Angels hadn't given up 3 runs in the 8th inning!  We hope you had a good day yesterday, though it was tough.  Many of the clear favorites lost, including Canada and the 9 or more field goals made.  Oh well, today is a new day and chance to start over!

    If you haven't already, we invite you to follow us on Twitter (@TheFanstasySC), and follow our groups (on the left of the page).  We could really use your help to spread the word again so that people know we're back to blogging.  Thanks!

    Now on to sports.  The remaining props will be posted soon.  We wish you the best of luck!

    Our top stash pick:
    1. MLB:  Arizona Diamondbacks
    2. MLB:  Kansas City Royals
    Our picks for every prop:
      • Golf:  Padraig Harrington or tie 
        • Yesterday I didn't take the tie option and got burned.  Bradley actually had an incredible 1st round, shooting a -10.  Getting back to this prop, Leishman shot a -1 on these holes (10 - 18) yesterday, while Harrington shot a +1 for these holes.  One thing I've noticed about golf is that prior rounds are often no indication for future rounds and in fact can be completely opposite.  Harrington shot a +3 on hole 15 yesterday.  You can't count on the happening again.  If I get burned for the tie option this time, so be it.
        • Confidence: 60%
      • Soccer:  VPS Win or Draw
        • Ok look, I like to consider myself a pretty big soccer fan.  I am always game to watch a match in just about any level of any league in the world, but sadly, living in the US, we pretty much only get the EPL, La Liga, and the occasional Bundesliga, Serie A or Ligue 1 match.  But that's pretty much it.  So this pick is for the Finnish Veikkausliiga, yeah that's right, unless you are from Finalnd, you probably haven't heard of this league either.  So I am not going to waste much of my time researching this pick cause anything I say about it is likely to be wrong considering I don't even know how to pronounce the name of the league.  So yeah, that's all I'm gonna say about that, pick at your own risk.
        • Confidence: 2%
      • Golf:  Angel Cabrera or tie
        • The results from round 1 are these: Cabrera shot a -5 and Schwartzel a -7.  I think Cabrera can at least tie Schwartzel in round 2 if not beat him.  
        • Confidence: 50%
      • Other:  Any Other Horse
        • I'm guessing they changed this prop because since two horses scratched, the winner from position 1 - 5 would have been too easy.  At any rate, this is basically a race between Emollient and Fiftyshadesofhay.  Taking any other horse also gives you 5 other horses that have a shot at winning.  
        • Confidence: 70%
      • Soccer:  Any other Result
        • In the final of the Copa del Rey we have the Madrid Derby.  Now this is not the biggest rivalry in La Liga, but it nevertheless is a big rivalry and the fans of these two teams do not like each other.  Atletico Madrid has always been in the little brother to Real Madrid.  Even though Athletico has its own fair share of trophies, they are far and away behind the amount that Real has, including having never won the Champions League, something RM has done 9 times (more than any other squad).  This season Real won both meetings against Atletico 2-0 and 2-1.  Neither match was a blow out and I expect the result to be similar today.  For Real, this may be the last chance with Jose Mourinho as Manager to win a trophy.  After what may be considered a disappointing season for RM, this would not make up for losing La Liga or the Champions League, but at least the season wouldn't be empty.  I think Real will win, but I expect it to be close. Let's just hope they can hold onto the trophy.
        • Confidence: 55%
      • Soccer:  Any other number
        • Real Madrid has Ronaldo.  Atletico Madri has Falcao.  These two strikers are two of the best in the world and are ranked number 2 and 3 on the total goals scored list in La Liga this season behind Lionel Messi.  But to go along with Ronaldo, Real has Di Maria, Benzema, Higuain, Ozil, and a host of other players who can score as well.  I think there is too much fire power on the pitch to assume that only one player will score.
        • Confidence: 60%
      • Soccer:  Real Madrid
        • Just above I listed some of the great Real players who are capable of scoring.  I stopped at like 5 guys, but I could have named plenty more.  I don't know how the flow of this game will be, but I do know that RM has more players with the ability to score, so given the players on the pitch, I have to pick RM.  But if they have a 2 goal lead going into the half, I would probably change my pick to Atletico who would come out desperate to get back into the match quickly.
        • Confidence: 60%
      • Other:  Baylor Lady Bears
        • In all honesty, who really knows that much about women's softball?  On a serious note though, Baylor obviously has the better record and has played tougher competition.  The game is also in College Station, so Baylor will have more fans there and will want to impress in front of their "home" crowd.
        • Confidence: 60%
      • MLB:  Cincinatti Reds
        • The Reds have been quietly putting a good streak together.  They've won their last 7 straight.  They also swept the Phillies in their previous series back in mid April.  The starting pitchers for this game have pretty even numbers.  Lee just hasn't been quite the same as last year, and Cingrani has been surprisingly good.  The Phillies are favored at -120, but they've been so inconsistent this season that I have to go with the more consistent, hotter team.
        • Confidence: 70%
      • MLB:  Baltimore Orioles
        • I'm hesitant to pick the Orioles after they lost their last two games to the Padres that they should have easily won.  However, with Hellickson pitching for the Rays and the Orioles favored at -120, I'm going to give them another shot.  Hellickson hasn't won a start in over a month and is 1 - 2 with a 5.25 ERA on the season.  Hammel for the Orioles is 5 - 1 with a 4.93 ERA.  The Orioles have also won 4 of the 6 games they've played against the Rays this season, and for what it's worth, they have won the first and last games of both previous series against the Rays.  
        • Confidence: 70%
      • MLB:  Cleveland Indians
        • The Indians have been one of the hottest teams in baseball this season.  They have won 9 of 11 at home and 14 of their last 18 overall.  They just split a two-game set with the Phillies and now return home for a little while.  Jimenez has won his last 3 starts and looks to continue his success at home.  Maurer on the other hand has lost his last two starts and is 2 - 5 with a 5.97 ERA this season.  The Mariners have a chance to finally get back to .500 after winning two against the Yankees, but I think they fall short again tonight, as the Indians will just be too much at home.
        • Confidence: 70%
      • MLB:  Arizona Diamondbacks
        • The Diamondbacks have been one of the best road teams in baseball with an 11 - 7 mark, including winning their last 3.  The Marlins are one of if not the worst team in baseball, positng a dismal 5 - 14 record at home, including losing their last 5 straight and 8 of 9 overall.  Cahill has the higher overall ERA between these two pitchers but has gone 2 - 1 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 4 starts.  Slowey got beat up by Detroit in his last start.  The DBacks are favored at -140, and I just can't see them losing to the lowly Marlins, even on the road.
        • Confidence: 80%
      • MLB:  Los Angeles Dodgers
        • The line is currently at Braves -150, which are pretty good odds in favor of the Braves.  I'm not buying it.  The Braves have been terrible lately, losing 5 of their last 6 games.  Their scheduled starter, Paul Malhom is 4 - 4 with a 3.94 ERA overall, but is just 1 - 4 with a 6.83 ERA over his last 5 starts.  Ryu for the Dodgers is 4 - 2 with a 3.40 ERA on the season.  The Braves could get Jason Heyward back from surgery tonight, but he is only a .111 career hitter against the Dodgers, so I doubt his return will have an impact. 
        • Confidence: 65%
      • NHL:  Ottawa Senators Win or lose by 1
        • This is the exact same prop from a couple of days ago.  We had the senators win or lose by 1 that time too, and they were blown out 4 - 1.  The main reason for the Penguins' success is their power play.  They scored two of their goals in their last game off the power play, and Ottawa will need to find a way to stop the power play if they hope to have a chance in this series.  If Ottawa loses again tonight, you can basically count them out of this series because they have never overcome an 0 - 2 hole.  Because of this, the Senators will definitely do everything they can to win this game.  I really don't think it will be a blowout again.  If it is, this series is over.
        • Confidence: 60%
      • Other:  Texas A&M wins by 5+ runs
        • I really don't know much about these teams, especially Penn.  From what I could find, they haven't played any common opponents this season.  Penn is 30 - 18 on the season and Texas A&M is 39 - 15.  A&M have won a lot of games this season by 5+ and this is pretty much a home game for them, so I'm taking them to cover here.
        • Confidence: 65%
      • Other:  Yes Texas A&M score 1+ runs in the 1st inning
        • Texas A&M has scored in the 1st inning in nearly half of their games.  Penn has not faced tough competition like A&M this season.  A&M should come out striking early.
        • Confidence: 65%
      • MLB:  Kansas City Royals
        • The Royals' scheduled starter, James Shields, has been much better than his record shows.  He hasn't gotten much run support, which is why he's 2 - 3.  He does have only a 2.48 ERA though.  The Royals seem to have come alive in California.  They just won two games against the Angels in impressive fashion and should do the same tonight.  The A's have lost 8 of their last 10, and Parker is 2 - 5 with a 6.86 ERA.
        • Confidence: 75%
      • MLB:  Chicago White Sox
        • The White Sox seem to have found their offense lately, and it's coming at just the right time.  The last time Sale faced the Angels he nearly pitched a no-hitter.  He should be dominant again, and the White Sox take 2 in a row.  
        • Confidence: 65%

      Wednesday, May 15, 2013

      Streak for the Cash Picks, May 16

      Now that's more like it!  We went 14 - 6 yesterday and won our top stash pick (although we didn't get it posted til late)!  Keep following us if you want to make correct picks :)

      If you haven't already, we invite you to follow us on Twitter (@TheFanstasySC), and follow our groups (on the left of the page).  We could really use your help to spread the word again so that people know we're back to blogging.  Thanks!

      Now on to sports.  All of our picks are now posted.  We wish you the best of luck!

      Our top stash pick:
      1. NBA:  9 or More FGs in the first half
      Our picks for every prop:
        • Golf:  Jason Dufner 
          • I must warn you, golf is the sport I know the least about.  I'm taking Dufner here because the tie option has not won on these props for a while and I just don't trust Bradley when he's featured on Streak for the Cash.
          • Confidence: 50%
        • Other:  Finland wins by 2+
          • Finland just played Slovakia on May 4 and beat them 2 - 0.  That was a world championships match.  This is the quarterfinals of the World Championships, and both teams are obviously talented or they would not have gotten this far.  This game is in Helsinki, so Finland will have a major crowd advantage.  
          • Confidence: 65%
        • Golf:  D.A. Points or tie
          • I really don't know much about these golfers.  It seems like the tie option wins more often than not with the 18 hole props.  Plus, the name Points just oozes of success.
          • Confidence: 50%
        • Other:  Canada
          • These teams have not met other than in the world championships.  Canada has won 4 of the last 5 times they've played, dating back to 2008 and including the most recent game on May 9. Canada won that game 3 - 0.  Since the game is being played in Stockholm, Sweden, I expect Sweden to have major home ice advantage, but even still, I think Canada will be too much for them.
          • Confidence: 70%
        • Other:  No run scored in first inning
          • This is a total tossup.  I know both of these teams are pretty good, but it's really hard to say if and when the scoring will come.  
          • Confidence: 55%
        • MLB:  Pittsburgh Pirates
          • The Brewers have been really good at hitting against left-handed pitchers.  The last lefty they faced, Wandy Rodriguez, held them to 1 run over 7 innings.  Now Francisco Liriano will try to do more of the same.  He is 1 - 0 with a 1.69 ERA.  Hiram Burgos on the other hand is 1 - 1 with a 6.86 ERA.  The line is Pirates -150, and they are at home, which makes this pick even better.
          • Confidence: 70%
        • MLB:  Boston Red Sox
          • Although the Rays are favored at -136 and Cobb has a better ERA than Doubront this season, I'm taking the Red Sox to win again and take the series.  Doubront did have a bit of a rough outing in his last start, but I think he gets it turned around tonight.
          • Confidence: 70%
        • NHL:  Boston Bruins
          • How many of you used the forfeit button when the Bruins were down 2 late in the 3rd period against Toronto in their last game?  That was an incredible comeback!  The Bruins will need more of that if they are going to win this series against the Rangers.  They went just 1 - 2 against the Rangers during the regular season, though those games were back in January and February.  They have not faced the Rangers in the playoffs in nearly 40 years!  Henrik Lundqvist has been nearly unstoppable in net for the Rangers.  He has a 1.65 GAA and shutout the Capitals in their last two games.  The Bruins may have a hard time getting the puck in goal.  I expect this to be a low-scoring, hard-fought series.  I'm taking the Bruins because they're at home, and I'm really not sure how they'll do in this series.  This game should give a good indication.
          • Confidence: 65%
        • MLB:  Texas Rangers
          • If you enjoy great pitching, then this is the game for you.  Two of the best pitchers in all of baseball face off tonight in Arlington, Texas.  Darvish is the strikeout king this season, with 80, and he's on pace to reach 300 this year.  Verlander is slightly better than him in ERA, but Darvish had the better of their last starts.  The Rangers are only slightly favored at -108.  This should be a great game, so sit back and enjoy!
          • Confidence: 70%
        • NBA:  New York Knicks
          • The Knicks have not been able to figure out a lineup that works against the Pacers.  If it wasn't for their 33-2 run in game two of the series, this may have been a sweep.  The Knicks have not looked well and have not been making shots.  I don't know who is to blame, probably a little bit of Josh Smith and a lot of Mike Woodson.  But tonight they are back in MSG with their backs against the wall and will be playing with desperation.  So will they win? Uhh, I don't really know, but I have to pick, so I have to believe that they will.  Melo is always capable of having a big game and tonight will have to have one of his biggest.  
          • Confidence: 60%
        • NBA:  9 or More FGs in the first half
          • In the last game Paul George and Carmelo Anthony only had a combined 16 FGs made in the entire game.  But like I mentioned above, I think Melo is bound to have a big game.  So I think he will take a lot of shots tonight and will make some of them.  So add in Paul George, I have to believe they will make a combined 9 FGs.  
          • Confidence: 50%
        • MLB:  San Francisco Giants
          • The Giants have had phenomenal success against the Rockies, winning 24 of their last 29 games and each of the previous 10 series against them.  Scutaro, who they acquired from the Rockies, has been a big reason why.  Buster Posey has also hit very well against them.  The Rockies are actually slightly favored at -104, probably mostly due to Matt Cain's numbers this season and because the Giants were just manhandled by Toronto, but I just can't go against history in this one.
          • Confidence: 70%
        • NBA:  Knicks: First to 10 Points
          • This is stupid of me to make a pick like this before watching the first half of play.  I am picking the Knicks simply because I know that they have the potential to shoot the lights out and score 10 points in 10 seconds.  But don't make this pick until watching the first half and getting a chance to get a feel for how the teams are playing.  Also, it is probably best to just not make this pick.
          • Confidence: 50%
        • NHL:  Los Angeles Kings
          • Most of the focus after game 1 of this series has been on Raffi Torres and his hit on Jarrett Stoll which caused him to travel to New York for a disciplinary council.  Torres will not return until the decision of the council has been made.  Stoll will also likely be out for a few games from the effects of the hit.  San Jose was shutout in the first game, and while I don't expect them to be shutout again, I do think the defending champs will win again at home.
          • Confidence: 70%
        • MLB:  Los Angeles Angels
          • The White Sox are among the league worst in hitting, runs, and average with runners in scoring position.  They did have a nice game yesterday, but have really struggled offensively this season.  Their scheduled starter for this game, Jose Quintana, is 2 - 1 with a 3.72 ERA.  L.A.'s scheduled starter, Jerome Williams, is 2 - 1 with a 3.06 ERA.  The Angels have not been spectacular this season, but are definitely better than the White Sox.  
          • Confidence: 75%
        • NBA:  San Antonio Spurs
          • I think the Spurs have figured out the Warriors guards.  They have put Leonard on Thompson and Green on Curry and have essentially stopped their scoring.  In game 5, Thompson and Curry had a combined 13 points.  That was their lowest combined scoring in any game they played all season, regular and post season.  So, they have figured it out and will most likely continue to shut down the Warriors guards, especially since Curry is looking really hurt and his shot has not looked like it did in the first few games.
          • Confidence: 60%
        • NBA:  Spurs
          • Thompson and Curry have gone cold and Curry's big quarter is the third, so for those two reasons, I have to believe the Spurs will make more 3's than the "Splash Brothers" (stupid nickname) in the first half.  
          • Confidence: 55%

        Tuesday, May 14, 2013

        SFTC Picks for Wednesday, May 15

        If you haven't already, we invite you to follow us on Twitter (@TheFanstasySC), and follow our groups (on the left of the page).  We could really use your help to spread the word again so that people know we're back to blogging.  Thanks!

        Now on to sports.  Since I have a final early in the morning, I will post the remaining write-ups later.  We wish you the best of luck!

        Our top stash pick:
        1. NBA:  Any other result
        Our picks for every prop:
        1. Soccer:  Giannina win/draw
          • Perhaps people are overlooking the fact that Asteras Tripolis has beaten Giannina 4 straight times, the most recent being a 2-1 win on the road on March 3.  I think most people are just taking the win/draw option at home.  I believe Tripolis is without their leading scorer, and they already have 2 points in this playoff competition due to how they finished the season.  I'm taking the draw, but wouldn't risk a big streak on this, especially given Tripolis' success against Giannina.
          • Confidence: 50%
        2. MLB:  Baltimore Orioles
          • What a way to lose a game yesterday!  The Orioles' closer hadn't blown a save in 35 straight games.  The Orioles are favorites at -160 and their starting pitcher, Freddy Garcia would love nothing more than to get a win against the team that released him during the spring.  John Marquis has had some success lately for the Padres, but he is 0 - 1 with a 10.80 ERA in three starts against the Orioles.  The O's get revenge for yesterday.
          • Confidence: 70%
        3. MLB:  Chicago White Sox
          • I'm really undecided on this one.  Going by pitcher stats, Chicago should win.  Going by this season's games results, Minnesota should win.  The White Sox also haven't won 2 in a row in over two weeks.  The line favors Chicago, and Minnesota's Pelfrey's stats are not good, so I'm taking the White Sox here to win.
          • Confidence: 55%
        4. Soccer:  Benfica
          • Currently on SFTC almost 95% of people are picking Chelsea to win this game.  I truly have no idea why I am picking Benfica.  The Portuguese side are in a battle for the league title and would love to add a Europa title as well.  Benfica is led by the Albanian striker Lima and his fellow front man Oscar Cardozo who have a combined 34 goals this season.  Benfica has a goal difference of 55 goals in the Portuguese Liga.   Now to give Chelsea their dues, they too are good, but I worry that too many people are underestimating how good Benfica is and I think we see an upset today.  For Chelsea, playing in the Europa final a year after winning the Champions League is like the Miami Heat playing for a D-League title after winning the NBA title last year.  Or like Michael Phelps winning the Gold Medal in the Olympics one year and the next year swimming in the North Dakota State High School Championship swim meet.  One might question how excited Chelsea can really be to be playing in the Europa final.  Let's be honest, Chelsea will probably win, but I had to pick the upset.
          • Confidence: 50%
        5. Soccer:  Either team leads
          • With the scoring ability of both Benfica and Chelsea I believe there will be goals scored in the first half of this final.  I don't expect both teams to come out flat and dead.  I'm not sure what kind of lineup the two sides will play and if they will look to attack to wait and play off the counter attack.  But I think both teams will be looking to score early.  As it often is in these kinds of matches, the first goal may prove to be critical.  Someone will score in the first half and I think someone will take a lead into the half.  
          • Confidence: 50%
        6. Soccer:  2 or more
          • For all the reasons mentioned above, these two teams know how to put the ball in the net.  If there are any nerves or cold feet in the first half, it'll all be gone by the second half and there will be some goals scored.  If there is a goal with a net, these teams will find a way to score.  
          • Confidence: 50%
        7. MLB:  Seattle Mariners
          • Hernandez had the lead yesterday, but his team couldn't hold it.  Iwakuma has been just as good if not better than Hernandez, he just hasn't gotten quite the recognition.  Hughes has been good in his last couple starts, his overall stats aren't very good.  What's kept New York in games and helped them win is their bullpen.  I think the Mariners steal one here though.
          • Confidence: 55%
        8. MLB:  Pittsburgh Pirates
          • I'm really undecided on this one, similar to the White Sox and Twins game.  Milwaukee has had the Pirates' number lately, but Gallardo has been inconsistent at best this season.  I think the Pirates win another close one.  I just don't trust Gallardo.
          • Confidence: 55%
        9. MLB:  Boston Red Sox
          • The Red Sox have been reeling lately, but I think they get back to winning with Lester tonight.  Lester has been spectacular, going 5 - 0 with a 2.73 ERA.  Price has only 1 win so far this season, going 1 - 3 with a 4.78 ERA.  
          • Confidence: 65%
        10. MLB:  Toronto Blue Jays
          • I just can't pick the Giants with Voglesong on the mound.
          • Confidence: 70%
        11. NBA:  Any other result
          • The Bulls do better in odd number games.  They won game 7 against the Nets, won game 1 against Miami, kept it close in game 3 against the Heat, and tonight in game 5, I have to expect a similar result.  Ok, that whole odd game thing was just a joke.  The Heat are going to win tonight, of that I almost feel confident enough to put money down.  But the Bulls are tough and I expect them to fight with everything they've got to try and stay alive.  They won't stay alive, and their season will be over, but I think they will keep it respectable and will be within reach in the 4th quarter, maybe a long reach, but it'll still be a reach.
          • Confidence: 50%
        12. NBA:  Carlos Boozer first half points
          • Boozer scored only 14 points in the first two games combined but has scored 35 in the past two.  He is playing better and has actually began to contribute a little bit.  The most I can expect from him in the first half is 10 points.  Can LeBron get that in the first quarter? Uhh, do I need to drink water to survive? In case you just arrived to this planet, the answer to both those questions is yes.  LeBron can easily score 10 points in any and every quarter.  But I think tonight the Bulls defense against him will be smothering and although he will figure it out and have another great LeBron game, it may take him a little bit to get going and therefore, he may not get off to a great first quarter.
          • Confidence: 50%
        13. Soccer:  Philadelphia Union win/draw
          • Both of these teams have similar records.  L.A. has a better goal differential at +5 compared to -1, but the Union have either won or drawn most of their home matches, so I'll take the draw option.
          • Confidence: 60%
        14. MLB:  Colorado Rockies
          • Oh what the heck, I'm taking the Rockies.  I really don't know about this one though.
          • Confidence: 50%
        15. NHL:  Chicago Blackhawks win by 2+ goals
          • Last time a similar prop was featured on here, the 2+ option won the prop easily.  Although the Blackhawks have only beaten the Red Wings by 2+ once this season, they just rolled over Minnesota and are well rested for this game.  Detroit just finished a grueling 7 game series with Anaheim.  The Blackhawks are also at home.
          • Confidence: 70%
        16. NHL:  Chicago Blackhawks
          • Like I said above, the Blackhawks are well rested and have used the extra time to tinker with their lines.  I think they'll be able to give Detroit some looks they haven't seen so far.  They will also be fired up by the home crowd.
          • Confidence: 65%
        17. NBA:  Any Other Result
          • In the first half of this game, the Heat won this prop in the 1st quarter but lost it big time in the 2nd.  The Bulls nearly doubled the Heat's points in the 2nd quarter.  The Bulls will have the keep this up in order to have a shot at winning this game.  They are playing for their playoff lives, and will not go down without a fight.  
          • Confidence: 65%
        18. NBA:  Oklahoma City Thunder
          • For the Thunder, the series is not yet over.  All they need to do is win tonight, steal a game in Memphis and then they are back in OKC for a deciding game 7.  Ok, so its not gonna be that easy, but the Thunder are desperate tonight.  The fact that KD has been able to keep this series close all by himself has been impressive but tonight, he has one other team mate on his side, the OKC crowd.  I think those fans at Chesapeake arena will give the boost to the other Thunder players to step up and send the series back to Memphis.
          • Confidence: 60%
        19. MLB:  Kansas City Royals
          • The line for this game is L.A. -106, which means the odds are pretty even for both teams.  The Angels' scheduled starter, Barry Enright, has an ERA of 11.37!  I think the Royals take the series from the Angels tonight.
          • Confidence: 65%
        20. MLB:  Los Angeles Dodgers
          • The line for this game is L.A. -140.  Those are pretty good odds in favor of L.A.  This is Greinke's first start since breaking his collarbone.  He's back ahead of schedule, and it's a good thing for the Dodgers.  They could really use him.  Fortunately for the Dodgers, the Nationals will most likely still be without Bryce Harper and have just been a little abnormal lately. 
          • Confidence: 70%

        Monday, May 13, 2013

        SFTC Picks for May 14

        Man these baseball results have been very unpredictable.  It's hard when you're making picks and doing write-ups for every prop every day to build a super high winning percentage.  We did go 2 - 0 on our top stash picks yesterday though!  

        If you haven't already, we invite you to follow us on Twitter (@TheFanstasySC), and follow our groups (on the left of the page).  We could really use your help to spread the word again so that people know we're back to blogging.  Thanks!

        Now on to sports.  All of our predictions are now posted.  We wish you the best of luck!

        Our top stash picks:
        1. MLB:  San Francisco Giants
        2. NBA:  Warriors: Win or single digit loss
        Our picks for every prop:
        1. Tennis:  Richard Gasquet
          • These two have played each other 3 times in the past couple of years on 3 different surfaces with each result ending in a Gasquet victory. Dimitrov is starting to come into his game as evidenced by his victory over Novak Djokovic in Madrid but he still needs consistency before his talent truly makes an impact. Gasquet, the man with a beautiful one hand backhand, will take this match in 3 sets as long as his body holds up.
          • Confidence: 70%
        2. Soccer:  Dukla Prague
          • I had to do some serious searching to find informaiton about these two teams.  I'll be the first to admit that I do not catch a lot of games from the Czech league.  I had to double check how to spell Czech, which isn't a good sign.  Dukla is currently in the 6th spot in the table while Brno is number 12.  And that's pretty much all I have to offer.
          • Confidence: 50%
        3. Soccer:  Wigan: Win, Draw, lose by 1
          • Some days I hate my job.  Oh, not because it is an awful or a boring job, it's because going to work makes me miss exciting matches like this one.  Both of these teams are desperate and both for different reasons.  Wigan may have won the FA Cup title, but they are in trouble of becoming the first team ever to win an FA Cup and be relegated to the lower division in the same season.  They need to get a result against Arsenal to keep their hopes alive.  Arsenal is currently sitting in 5th place in the table, just 2 point behind Spurs for the 4th spot.  A top four finish is huge for a team like Arsenal with such a long history in the Champions League.  Yes the EPL title may have already been wrapped up, but there are other exciting story lines in the league as the season ends, and this game should provide one of the best.  Stupid work.
          • Confidence: 50%
        4. Soccer:  Bordeaux
          • This is the Coupe de France, the French version of England's FA Cup or Spain's Copa del Rey.  Bordeaux is currently in 8th place in the Ligue 1 table while Troyes is in 19th place facing relegation.  Hmm, sounds like we just saw this game over the weekend.  A team in the top half of the table facing a team near relegation and the team on the verge of being relegated came out victorious.  Well, I don't believe lighting will strike twice, Bordeaux will win and advance to the finals.
          • Confidence: 70%
        5. MLB:  Baltimore Orioles
          • The Orioles took a huge hit to their starting rotation on Sunday, with Chen getting injured and placed on the DL.  Fortunately, Tillman has been one of the best in their starting rotation, winning his last 3 and posting a 2.03 ERA over his last 4 starts.  The Orioles are among the best in baseball in most offensive categories.  They haven't faced the Padres yet this season, but given the Padres recent form and the Orioles' current success, and the fact that the line is Orioles -143, they seem like a pretty safe bet.
          • Confidence: 70%
        6. MLB:  Philadelphia Phillies
          • The Indians just demolished the Phillies in their two-game series about two weeks ago, outscoring them 20 - 2 and out-hitting them 31 - 8.  They are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  However, they will be tired, as they just played a series with Detroit over the weekend and then a double-header yesterday with the Yankees.  The Phillies will be more rested, and have Pettibone on the mound, who is 2 - 0 with a 3.63 ERA.  Kazmir on the other hand is 2 - 1 with a 4.87 ERA.
          • Confidence: 60%
        7. MLB:  Seattle Mariners
          • Wow, what a pitching matchup this should be.  Felix Hernandez is 4 - 0 with a 0.71 ERA in his last 5 starts.  He is also 4 - 1 with a 1.13 ERA in his last 5 road starts against the Yankees.  Overall, he's 7 - 2 with a 2.19 ERA in his last 10 against the Yanks.  Pitching opposite him will be CC Sabathia, who is 4 - 0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last 5 at home, and has won his last 8 starts against the Mariners.  I'm not super confident about it, but I'm taking the Mariners because they seem to win when featured on SFTC, and because I think the Yanks will be tired after their double-header yesterday.
          • Confidence: 55%
        8. MLB:  Pittsburgh Pirates
          • After losing a game yesterday that they should have won, I think the Pirates will bounce back and get the win tonight.  For whatever reason, the Brewers really struggle when Lohse pitches, as he's gotten 1 or 0 runs of support 5 times in his 7 starts.  He is 1 - 4 with a 3.53 ERA.  Locke, on the other hand, is 3 - 1 with a 2.97 ERA.  The Pirates have only beaten the Brewers once in their last 11 meetings, but I think history is made again tonight.
          • Confidence: 70%
        9. MLB:  San Francisco Giants
          • After his suspension last season for PEDs, Melky Cabrera now welcomes his former team to Toronto.  Unfortunately for him, his former team, not his current one, is going to win.  Truthfully, Dickey has been awful for the Blue Jays this season, especially at home.  He posts a 6.75 ERA at home and a 3.55 ERA on the road.  I know, it's strange.  The Giants will counter with Barry Zito, who is 3 - 1 with a 2.75 ERA.  The line is currently Toronto -123, but I just don't see them winning this game.  
          • Confidence: 80%
        10. NBA:  Indiana Pacers
          • After game 1 I was sure that the Pacers were gonna win this series.  After game two, I was positive that the Knicks were the better team and were gonna win this series.  After game 3, I... I... I honestly don't know.  I think it is clear that Indiana has found some of the Knicks weaknesses and are able to exploit them through their size down low.  The Knicks rely heavily on their jump shooting and do not have much of a presence down low to defend the Indiana big men and keep them off the glass.  Most people did not give the Pacers a shot because well, lets face it, they are kinda boring to watch to the average NBA fan.  But the Pacers were first in the NBA in rebounding and 2nd in scoring defense. And if I know a couple of things, I know that rebounding and defense can win games and championships and can make up for a lack of offensive power.  The Grizzlies are doing it out West and the Pacers are doing it in the East.
          • Confidence: 60%
        11. MLB:  Tampa Bay Rays
          • Both the Rays and the Red Sox are different teams from the start of the season.  Boston started off 20 - 8 but have gone just 2 - 8 since then.  The Rays started off 4 - 8 but are 15 - 10 since then.  Matt Moore has been spectacular for the Rays, although his control has been lacking at times.  He's 6 - 0 with a 2.14 ERA.  The Red Sox counter with John Lackey, who is 1 - 3 with a 2.82 ERA.  Although the Rays were swept by the Sox in their last series, the Rays' current form, the fact that they are favorites at -142, and the fact that they are at home convince me to take them.
          • Confidence: 75%
        12. NBA:  Carmelo Anthony Points
          • Anthony has averaged 13.33 points per half in this series against the Pacers.  George has averaged 11.67 points + rebounds per half in this series.  Going by averages, Anthony should win.  I like this even more since the Knicks are down 1 - 2 in this series and Anthony should come out hot and win this game for them.
          • Confidence: 70%
        13. NHL:  Senators win or lose by 1
          • This is a tough one.  The Penguins beat the Senators by 2 twice and by 1 once during the regular season.  They only beat the Islanders by 2 twice in the last series, although both times were at home.  They got more fight than I think they were expecting from the Islanders, and the Senators will give them even more.  The Senators just steamrolled the Canadiens, beating them in 5 games.  I think the Penguins will win, but the game will be close.  The only reason I would think about taking the Pens by 2+ is that they are at home.
          • Confidence: 65%
        14. NHL:  Any Other Player
          • Both of these teams sure can score, so I don't think the no goal scored will come into play.  Both teams also have numerous options for scoring goals.  Neither Crosby nor Malkin have been the leading goalscorers of late for the the Pens.  In fact I don't think they scored at all in their last 2 or 3 games.  Any other player looks like the best option here.
          • Confidence: 65%
        15. MLB:  Chicago Cubs
          • I got burned taking the Rockies yesterday.  I won't do it again.  They can't seem to hit the broad side of a barn lately.  If Chicago loses this game, it will likely be because of their bullpen, which has been a major disappointment lately.  The Cubs' starter, Carlos Villanueva, is 1 - 2 with a 3.02 ERA.  The Rockies counter with Jeff Francis, who is 1 - 3 with a 6.90 ERA.  The Cubs are favorites at -118 and they have won 15 of 19 home meetings against the Rockies.
          • Confidence: 70%
        16. MLB:  Minnesota Twins
          • The White Sox had a 2 - 0 lead yesterday but couldn't hold it and ended up getting spanked 10 - 3.  This game features two very solid pitchers.  Peavy though has struggled with back spasms, so he may not last long.  Correia pitches much better at home than on the road.  He is 3 - 0 with a 1.86 ERA there this season.  The White Sox just can't seem to generate any offense, and I think tonight will be more of the same.
          • Confidence: 65%
        17. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals
          • The Mets are in a real slump offensively.  The only ray of hope for them is that the Cardinals are bringing up John Gast from the minors to start tonight.  He has been very solid in the minors though, posting a 3 - 1 record with a 1.16 ERA in six starts.  The line is Cards -162, and even though they send a rookie to the mound, I think they still get the win tonight.
          • Confidence: 70%
        18. NBA:  No neither team will score 26+ points in the 3rd quarter
          • Carmelo Anthony is capable of scoring 26 points by himself in a quarter.  But the Pacers are playing on their home court, they are going to control the tempo of the game and if they are able to do that, I don't see either team getting to 26 points in any quarter, so I have to say they won't in the third either.  But don't make this pick until you get a feel for how the Knicks are shooting tonight.
          • Confidence: 50%
        19. NBA:  Warriors: Win or single digit loss
          • I would have been tempted to pick the Warriors if this pick was straight up, but now you are spotting me 10 points, almost seems like a no brainer.  Two of the 4 games in this series have gone to OT and all have been close down the stretch.  The Warriors have looked better on the Spurs home court for some reason and will be desperate to get the win tonight and take the lead back to Oakland and try to close out the series.  If the Warriors can't win tonight, their only hope would be to win in San Antonio in a game 7.  The Dubs will try to do whatever is necessary to avoid that scenario.  But like the Knicks against the Pacers, the Warriors ability to win this game will depend a lot on how they are shooting.  If either Curry or Thompson can explode in a quarter and turn a close game into a 15 point lead, then well, clearly the Warriors have a better chance of winning.  They have to make shots and continue to defend Duncan and Parker well.  
          • Confidence: 70%
        20. MLB:  Arizona Diamondbacks
          • The line for this game is DBacks -135.  The DBacks are at home.  They were manhandled by the Braves yesterday and are seeking revenge.  All of these are good reasons to take the DBacks, but the best reason is because they have one of the best pitchers in baseball, Patrick Corbin, on the mound tonight.  He is 5 - 0 with a 1.75 ERA this season.  
          • Confidence: 70%
        21. MLB:  Texas Rangers
          • Although the Rangers lost yesterday and have lost 5 straight to Oakland, I think the bleeding stops tonight.  Holland has been great this season, and he has historically been good against the A's.  Colon on the other hand has not been pitching well, and he was tagged for 6 runs and 8 hits through 4 innings in his last start on Thursday.  
          • Confidence: 65%
        22. MLB:  Kansas City Royals
          • I took the Angels yesterday because Mendoza had a 6+ ERA and I thought for sure the Angels could light him up.  Well they didn't, and got clobbered, 11 - 4.  If they can't get a hit against Mendoza, they surely can't hit against Guthrie.  He's been on fire lately, posting a 3 - 0 record with a 0.47 ERA in his last 3 starts.  He hasn't lost a game in 18 straight starts (since August 8 of last year), and I just don't think the Angels can give him his first loss.  
          • Confidence: 70%
        23. MLB:  Los Angeles Dodgers
          • Even though the Dodgers haven't given Kershaw much run support, I think they finally break through and get him a win tonight.  They have a great chance to do so with Haren on the mound for the Nationals.  They Nationals may also be without Bryce Harper.  Kershaw has gone 1 - 0 with a 0.89 ERA and 21 strikeouts over his last three starts.  
          • Confidence: 70%
        24. NHL:  Los Angeles Kings
          • This should be a great series.  The series and this game could really go either way.  They split their regular season match-ups, with each team winning two at home.  I'm taking the Kings here because they're at home and they're the defending Stanley Cup champs.
          • Confidence: 55%