Wednesday, March 27, 2013

SFTC picks for March 27

There were a couple of really surprising results yesterday.  Perhaps the most unexpected was the Bulls ending the Heat's streak.  The Heat had a great run and have had a lot of really close games lately, so it was inevitable that their streak had to end sooner or later.  The other surprise was the number of 3 pointers that BYU had today.  They seem to be suddenly playing very well in this post-season tournament.  They should have played like this during the regular season and conference tournament and they could have found themselves in the NCAA tournament instead of the "not invited" tournament.

Our picks are posted for the sweet 16 round of College Hoops Pick'em, so we invite you to click on the Basketball Games tab above and check them out before the games tip off tomorrow at around 7pm ET.  We also invite you to check out Jim Lee's write-ups concerning the sweet 16 at The James Lee Sports Report.

Our top two "stash" picks:
  1. NCAAM:  Ohio State Buckeyes
  2. NCAAM:  Syracuse: players with a made 3-pointer or tie

Our picks for all props:
  1. Golf:  Hunter Mahan or tie
    • As stated in the prop, this is for the back 9, holes 10 - 18.  These two tee off at the 10th hole, so the first 9 won't be available to look at.  This is also the first round of this Open, so there are not any previous rounds to compare to.  However, these two are both good golfers, but Mahan has done better than Mickelson on this course in previous years, and Mickelson hasn't been in great form recently, to the point of failing to miss cuts.  
    • Confidence:  70%  
  2. Other:  150 points or more
    • All of CSKA Moscow's past 5 games have gone less than 149 total points.  In Real Madrid's past 5 games, 4 of them have gone over 150 total points.  The most recent game between these two, played back at the end of January had 164 total points scored.  These results point toward 150 or more points being scored.
    • Confidence:  60%
  3. MLB:  Washington Nationals
    • Wow, the team with the tie option finally won one of these props!  In the previous meetings between these two teams, the Mets have won 2, the Nationals have won 2, and they have tied once.  This is spring training, so pick at your own risk, but the Mets have a ton of players listed as day-to-day, and Washington only has a couple, so I'm taking the Nationals in this one.
    • Confidence:  50%
  4. Tennis:  8 games or more
    • These two players have met 5 times with Sharapova being the victor 4 of those times. They always meet in either the semis or the finals which they are yet again in Miami. Jankovic has slowly been building back into top shape after not quite being there the last few years. Sharapova on the other hand is looking for her first title in Miami even though her form slipped in the last match. By match end it will be Sharapova who advances to another Final.
    • Confidence: 65%
  5. Golf:  Keegan Bradley or tie
    • I'm just taking Bradley with the tie option here as he has been the better golfer recently.  McIlroy has been off of his game the last few tournaments, and he's just hard to trust right now. 
    • Confidence:  60%  
  6. Tennis:  20 games or fewer
    • These two have only played once in about the same amount of time on the tour. Surprising, but that one time result wasn't. Murray won in straight sets over Croatia's top player. Murray is at home on the hard courts of Miami and Cilic hasn't been playing his best tennis of late. This match will be over in two quick sets.
    • Confidence: 75%
  7. NCAAM:  Miami winning margin or tie
    • Miami is favored by 5 in this game.  Marquette doesn't make a ton of 3s, and it shouldn't be expected that they will suddenly make a ton here.  Miami has enough firepower on offense that this game should not be as close as Marquette's previous two.
    • Confidence:  80%
  8. NHL:  Ottawa Senators
    • The Rangers are among the league's lowest in goals scored per game.  The Senators have some of the best goal-tending in the league, and have won each match-up against the Rangers this season.  The Rangers have done a bit better recently, including beating the Flyers, but it's hard to ignore the Senators' goal-tending stats, scoring, and division position.
    • Confidence:  60%
  9. NCAAM:  Ohio State Buckeyes
    • A great match-up in this game, if we get it, will be Mark Lyons vs Aaron Craft.  One is a terrific scorer and loves to get in the lane and score.  The other is known for his defense, especially on-ball defending.  Both of these teams are playing well at the end of the season, and this should be a great game.  Ohio State is favored by 4 and should have the strength and finesse to be victorious.  They have lots of experience in close-game situations, should it come to that.  An interesting stat for this game:  Ohio State and Arizona have never met in the NCAA tournament.
    • Confidence:  80%
  10. NCAAM:  10 points or more
    • DeShaun Thomas is clearly Ohio State's leading scorer, averaging 19.7 points per game, and almost 10 points per game more than the next leading scorer.  Arizona doesn't have the defense to stop Thomas, so if this prop goes under, it will be because Thomas is just not making shots.  10 or more seems like the easy pick here though.
    • Confidence:  70%
  11. NBA:  Los Angeles Lakers
    • I don't like this pick one bit.  I have no idea if the Lakers will play like a championship team or if they will play like the team that lost to the Wizards and got punched in the face against the Warriors (literally, Dwight took a nice elbow to the face from David Lee).  After the Lakers took over the 8th spot in the playoffs a few weeks ago I thought they would be looking up towards 6th and 7th place but instead they are looking in the rear view mirror at the teams that are hanging onto their coattails, Utah and Dallas, and are within a 1.5 games of the final playoff spot.  The Lakers should beat the Bucks, but I would not be shocked if they lost by double digits.  
    • Confidence: 50%
  12. NHL:  Los Angeles Kings
    • The Kings have done well lately.  The Blues:  not so much.  The Blues have been struggling lately, losing 3 of their last 4, and just lost 3 - 0 to Edmonton on Tuesday.  The Kings have scored 10 goals in their previous two meetings this season against the Blues, and going back to last year's playoffs, have won 7 straight against them.
    • Confidence:  60%
  13. NBA:  Dallas Mavericks
    • Wow, both NBA picks today could go either way.  The Pacers are the better team but the Mavericks have been playing well lately and suddenly find themselves in the playoff race.  I have no idea how they still have playoff hopes, I absolutely thought that they would be making their summer vacation plans at this point.  The Pacer won the first meeting this year, but that was back in Novemeber.  The Pacers are hurting and the Mavericks are desperate, for this reason I see the Mavs winning at home.
    • Confidence: 50%
  14. NCAAM:  Yes, at least one player scores 11+ points in the second half
    • Obviously you'll want to see how the first half goes, but as of now I'm going with no player scoring 11+ points in the second half.
    • Confidence:  60%
  15. NHL:  Edmonton Oilers
    • Both of these teams are currently out of the playoff picture, but have a shot of making the playoffs with strong performances down the stretch.  The Oilers had an impressive win over St. Louis on Tuesday, and beat the Blue Jackets 3 - 0 the last time they visited Edmonton.  Edmonton with home-ice advantage seems like the safer option in this one.
    • Confidence:  50%
  16. NCAAM:  Syracuse: players with a made 3-pointer or tie
    • There are only 7 players that have made a 3-pointer this season for Syracuse.  You should really only count on 5 players making a 3-pointer though, as the other two made 6 and 1 3-pointers respectfully over the course of the season.  Syracuse has a great shot at winning this game outright.  I'm actually banking on that result more than a number of Syracuse's players making 3s.  The tie option may come up big here. 
    • Confidence:  80%
  17. NCAAM:  Wichita State winning margin or tie
    • La Salle averages 7.7 3-pointers made per game.  Wichita State is favored by 4 points in this game, but have the tie option here, and I really think they might win by double digits.  I think the tie option may come up huge in this one, but it could go either way.
    • Confidence:  60%
  18. NHL:  San Jose Sharks
    • I'm going with the Sharks at home in this one.  They just beat the Ducks twice in row.  They have only met the Red Wings once this season, and lost that game at home 2 - 1 in a shootout, but I like the Sharks to get revenge.
    • Confidence:  60%
    Props marked with a * are also featured on Streak It Up.

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