Wednesday, March 6, 2013

SFTC picks for 3/6

Ok, I have finished full write-ups for all of my picks for today.  Sorry it's so late.

My top 2 "stash" picks for tomorrow:
  1. NCAAM:  Georgetown Hoyas
  2. NCAAM:  Connecticut winning margin
My picks for every prop:
  1. Soccer:  PAOK Salonika: Win
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches between these 2, PAOK has won 4 times, the most recent being 2 - 0.  For overall form, PAOK has won 4 and drawn 1 over their last 5, and LEV has lost 4 and drawn 1.
    • Confidence:  60% 
  2. Soccer:  Paris-Saint Germain: Win
    • Confidence:  60% 
  3. Soccer:  Juventus wins by 2+
    • Last game between these two, Juventus won 3 - 0 on the road.  Juventus has only lost I think 3 times at home in the last couple years.  The question is, will they be motivated to win by 2 or more since they won the last leg 3 - 0?  I think they will want to impress at home.
    • Confidence: 60%
  4. NCAAM:  Maryland Terrapins
    • Maryland plays very well at home, and North Carolina has been mediocre on the road.  Maryland is currently favored by 1, but they play extremely well at home, and winning there is not an easy task.  Just ask Duke.
    • Confidence:  60%
  5. NCAAM:  Maryland leading at halftime or tied
    • This prop is really a total toss-up.  Don't pick with a high streak.  I like Maryland to keep it close the entire game. 
    • Confidence:  50%
  6. NCAAM:  Georgetown Hoyas
    • The Hoyas are the kings of the Big East right now.  ESPN's site actually has Villanova favored by 2, but I just don't understand that at all.  I will be totally shocked if Georgetown loses this game. 
    • Confidence: 80%
  7. NCAAM:  Iowa State
    • The line is currently at Iowa State -4.  Oklahoma St. is extremely motivated to win this game, as they need this win in order to have a shot at the conference regular season title.  But the Cyclones have only lost once on their home floor, an overtime loss to Kansas.  This should be a really close, edge-of-your-seat kind of game.  I just give the slight edge to Iowa St. since they're at home.  
    • Confidence: 50%
  8. NBA:  Cleveland Cavaliers
    • The line is currently at Utah -1.  The Jazz are still without Al Jefferson, but may get Mo Williams back in the lineup.  Utah has lost 4 of their last 5 and are currently in last place in the western conference.  The Cavs should get back Zeller today and maybe Waiters.  All said, I like the Cavs in this one.
    • Confidence:  70%
  9. NBA:  Washington Wizards
    • The Timberwolves are just plagued by injuries right now.  They are not playing well at all.  John Wall and the Wizards should take care of business here.  The line is Washington -2.
    • Confidence:  70%
  10. NBA:  Los Angeles Lakers
    • Kobe should definitely lead the Lakers to a victory in this one.  It's true, the Lakers have suffered on the road this season, but they shouldn't have problems against the Hornets.
    • Confidence:  70%
  11. NBA:  Houston Rockets
    • The Rockets just beat the Mavericks by 33 at home on Sunday.  The line is currently at Dallas -1.5, but I just like Houston in this one.
    • Confidence:  60%
  12. NCAAM:  Oklahoma wins by DD
    • Oklahoma is favored by 11.  They beat WV by 7 back in November and by 10 at WV in early January.  Judging by the way these 2 teams have been playing of late, I have to go with Oklahoma here. 
    • Confidence: 60%
  13. NBA:  Phoenix Suns
    • The Suns are doing well under their new interim head coach Hunter.  The have recently beat the Hawks, and shockingly, the Spurs in San Antonio.  Dragic should be back for this game, but O'Neill is still out.  The Raptors have lost 6 of their last 7, and I expect the skid to continue tonight.  The Suns are favored by 1.5.
    • Confidence:  60%
  14. NCAAM:  UConn winning margin
    • South Florida had an upset win over Georgetown almost 2 months ago, and beat DePaul by 10 in their last game.  They have lost every other Big East Conference game, and almost all of them by double digits.  They have been getting blown out as of late.  Last time these 2 played @UConn, UConn won by 5 in OT and South Florida had 6 3s.  South Florida averages about 6 3s per game, but they really have been getting blown out as of late, and I expect UConn to be able to win by close to 10 if not more.  
    • Confidence: 70%
  15. NBA:  San Antonio Spurs win by double digits
    • The Spurs are without Tony Parker, but have been playing well without him, and absolutely destroyed the Pistons in their last game.  For the Bulls, Kirk Henrich  is doubtful, Richard Hamilton stayed in Chicago, and Taj Gibson is unlikely to play.  Usually the double-digit option wins on these NBA props.  Also, with some key players out, it will be hard for Chicago to keep up with the Spurs.
    • Confidence:  70%
  16. NBA:  2 or 3 players score 10 or more points
    • I think this is the best option.  The players with 10 or more points will most likely be Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli, and Noah or Deng for the Bulls.  The Bulls are missing a lot of players, so they may have at least 2 guys with double digits points in the first half.  The Spurs spread the ball around a lot and have pretty even scoring across their roster, so they may have only 1 or 2 guys with 10+ points in the first half.  The biggest question here is if the number will be 4.  I don't think more than 4 players is likely, but it could be 4, so my confidence on this is a little lower.
    • Confidence:  50%
  17. NHL:  San Jose Sharks
    • These teams look pretty even on paper.  The Sharks won their season opener against the Flames 4 - 1 and were red-hot to to start the season.  Their offense hasn't been nearly as good lately, but they did just have a shootout win over the Canucks yesterday.  The Flames are only 5 - 5 at home.
    • Confidence: 60%
  18. NBA:  49 points or more
    • You might want to wait and see how the 1st half goes, but I expect this to go over.  I'm confident the Spurs can score, I just hope the Bulls can score enough to carry this over.
    • Confidence:  50%
  19. NCAAM:  California winning margin or tie
    • The last time these two played, Stanford won at home by 10 and had 6 3s.  That was over a month and half ago, and Stanford plays much better at home than on the road.  Stanford is 3 - 5 on the road in conference play, and those 3 wins came against Utah, Arizona State, and Oregon State, three teams near the bottom of the conference.  The tie option may be huge for Cal, but I expect them to win the prop without the tie. 
    • Confidence: 70%

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