SFTC picks for Wednesday, March 13

ANNOUNCEMENT:  We'd like to welcome Jim Lee to The Fantasy Sports Center staff!  Jim will be doing the Soccer and NBA picks from now on.  The format and everything will continue as before.  Please take time to welcome Jim by commenting on this post.  Thanks!  

Yesterday wasn't the best day for picks on SFTC, but the overall leader sure got lucky with the Penguins pick!  There weren't a lot of easy or sure picks.  Today is shaping up to be more of the same, but there are a couple that look pretty solid.

Our top 3 "stash" picks are:

1. NCAAM:  Cincinnati Bearcats
2. NCAAM:  Seton Hall Free throws made or tie
3. NBA:  Los Angeles Lakers

Our picks for all props:

1. Soccer:  Veria win/draw
• Veria is 12th in the league table, at 6 - 9 - 10.  Panthrakikos is 14th in the table, at 7 - 5 - 13.  Veria won the latest match between these two at home 2 - 0.  Both these teams find themselves at the bottom of the Greek Super League table hoping to avoid relegation.  Panthrakikos may be just a little bit more desperate than Veria, but I expect Veria to get the win or draw.  But honestly, I know next to nothing about the Greek Super League, so don't trust my pick.
• Confidence:  30%
2. NCAAM:  Cincinnati Bearcats
• In their only meeting this season, Providence won by 4 at home back in early February.  Cincinnati is currently favored by 4, and has a great Big East tournament resume.  
• Confidence:  70%
3. Soccer:  United States Win
• When it comes to ladies Soccer, the United States is the best in the world.  Abby Wombach won the Women's World Player of the year and she should lead the US to victory against Germany, even without Hope Solo.
• Confidence:  60%
4. NCAAM:  Seton Hall Free throws made or tie
• In their only meeting this season, Syracuse won by 11 @ Seton Hall, who made 17 free throws (but attempted 29).  Syracuse also attempted 29 free throws in that game.  Seton Hall just had a good win over South Florida, and everyone comes to play come tournament time.  I'll be very surprised if this is a blowout win, since Syracuse has not been playing that well recently.
• Confidence:  70%
5. NCAAM:  Stanford
• In their only meeting this season, Stanford won by 3 @ Arizona St.  Stanford is favored by 3 in this game, and are on a 2 game winning streak.  Arizona St. has lost their last 4.  This is a must win game for them if they want any chance of making the NCAA tournament, but Stanford should overpower them.  Stanford has a great history in the PAC-12 tournament.
• Confidence:  60%
6. Soccer:  Arsenal: Win, Draw or Lose by 1
• The Gunners will be desperate.  They lost the first leg at home to Bayern 3-1 and will need a Barcelona-esque match if they hope to come back.  I don't believe they will make it to the round of 8, but they will not lose again by 2 goals.  It looks to me like Arsenal is out of the Champions League and unless they turn it around in the last part of the EPL season or get some impressive signings in the next transfer window, it may take Arsenal a few years to make it back to the Champions League.
• Confidence:  50%
7. Soccer:  2 goals or fewer
• Only 1 total goal was scored by these teams in the last leg.  Both of these teams can definitely score, but they also both have good defenses.  I wouldn't pick this with a high streak though.
• Confidence:  50%
8. Soccer:  68th Minute or Later or No Goal
• Bayern has a two goal lead.  Franck Ribery, one of their leading goal scorers will miss the match.  And Arsenal, who may be desperate has struggled to score lately.  I expect Bayern to play a strong defensive match, maybe start an additional defending midfielder to keep Arsenal out of the goal.  Arsenal may get a late goal, but it will be too little too late.
• Confidence:  50%
9. NCAAM:  Villanova Winning Margin
• St. Johns only averages about 3.75 3 pointers made per game.  Needless to say, they don't shoot the ball well from deep.  Villanova is favored by 5, and beat St. Johns at home by 12 earlier this year.  This is a practical home game for St. Johns, but Villanova is just too good I think.
• Confidence:  60%
10. NBA:  Milwaukee Bucks
• Wizards are much better at home. But they suck. Bucks will win.
• Confidence:  65%
11. NCAAM:  Lafayette win/single digit loss
• Bucknell is currently favored by 11 in this game.  They beat Lafayette at home by 15, but lost by 1 on the road.  I'm confident Lafayette will keep it close, as this is the conference tournament final game.
• Confidence:  60%
12. NBA:  Los Angeles Lakers
• The Lakers beat the Hawks by 1 at home on March 3.  Atlanta is favored by 1 in this game, but are just 5 - 5 in their last 10.  The Lakers are 8 - 2 in their last 10, and Kobe and company are on a mission to make the playoffs.
• Confidence: 70%
13. NHL:  New Jersey Devils
• The Devils are still withoout their lead goalie Brodeur, but they have played well in the last few games.  The Flyers have been very inconsistent this season, mostly due to inconsistent and poor goal-tending.  New Jersey should be well-equipped to take advantage of that, and are at home.
• Confidence: 60%
14. NBA:  Gordon Hayward points scored or Tie
• OKC and Utah have met twice this season so far.  In the first meeting, @ OKC, Hayward had 13 points and the Thunder won by 12.  In the second meeting, at Utah, Hayward did not play, but the Jazz won by 15.  Hayward is averaging 16 ppg in his last 10, and for this game, the Thunder are favored by 13.  The stats point to Hayward points scored or tie.
• Confidence: 60%
15. NBA:  27 points or fewer
• More often than not, the under on a combined points prop like this wins.  Westbrook and Durant are the Thunder's leading scorers, but 14 points each is too much to ask for I think.  They are at home though, so they might just get the over. 
• Confidence: 50%
16. NCAAM:  Notre Dame winning margin
• Rutgers averages just under 5 3 pointers made per game.  Notre Dame is favored by 8 in this game, but only beat Rutgers by 3 at home in their only meeting this season.  Rutgers had an incredible night last night, but I have to go with Notre Dame in this one.  They are determined to hopefully win this tournament before they go to the ACC next season.
• Confidence:  60%
17. NBA:  3 or fewer
• I would see how the first half goes before deciding on this prop.  Check back at halftime to see if I've changed my pick.
• Confidence: 40%
18. NHL:  Calgary Flames
• For some reason, I'm just feeling the Flames in this one.
• Confidence: 50%
19. NBA:  Nuggets win by double digits
• Melo is still hurting and the Nuggets are looking like one of the best teams in the league.  They have been nearly unbeatable at home and I expect them to lay a smack down on Melo as he returns to his hold home.
• Confidence: 60%
20. NCAAM:  Washington Huskies
• I definitely have to go with the Huskies in this one.  They beat the Cougars both times they played this season, on the road by 5 and at home by 4.  They are favored by 2 in this game, but should definitely win.  We all know anything can happen in Championship week though.
• Confidence:  70%