SFTC picks for Monday, March 11

Are you kidding me?  The New York Red Bulls get beat by a re-done penalty kick in the 93rd minute??? Kentucky loses the SEC championship game?  Both Tottenham and ManU lose their props????  Michigan was an inch or so from winning their game????  So many picks yesterday were that close to going my way.  The Streak Master must really know what he's doing.  At least he knows how to make us mad, scream, and rip our hair out!!!  The last few days have gone like that.  So many picks that were just that close to going the way I picked but didn't.  This game is crazy but I sure do love it!!!

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My top 3 "stash" picks are:

1. NBA:  Brooklyn Nets
2. NHL:  Boston Bruins
3. NCAAM:  St. Mary's 3-pointers made or tie

My picks for all props:

1. Soccer:  Sibir Novosibirsk Win/Draw
• Sibir sits 5th in their league table while Ufa sits 8th.  Ufa has draws in 4 of their last 5 matches.  The odds slightly favor Sibir here, but I have a feeling the draw will happen.  I really have no idea about these teams though, so don't pick with a high streak.
• Confidence: 40%
2. Other:  Dynamo Moscow
• These teams have each won a game at home.  Hopefully the trend continues.  Dynamo won by a bigger margin, so I'm going with them at home in this game.
• Confidence: 50%
3. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals or tie
• St. Louis won 7 - 6 at "home" on March 7.  I don't think either of these teams have many players at the WBC, so I'm not expecting that to factor in.  I just think the Yankees are old and tired and the Cardinals should win or at least tie.  Spring training games are always unpredictable though.
• Confidence:  60%
4. Soccer:  Granada win/draw
• These teams have practically the same records, only differ in one position in the league table, and have very similar result in their last 5 games.  With so many things being practically the same, I'm going with the draw here.
• Confidence: 50%
5. Tennis:  19 games or more
• These two last played on Feb. 28 and the result was 19 games exactly.  Nadal just played yesterday against Harrison of the USA and the match went 21 games.  This is not a major tournament, so the match is the best of 3 sets.  Nadal will undoubtedly win, so Mayer will need to win at least 7 games.  All factors considered, 19 or more seems like the best option, but I wouldn't pick this with a high streak.
• Confidence: 50%
6. NCAAW:  Notre Dame wins by 15+
• In their only meeting this season against Louisville, Notre Dame won at home by 29.  There have been some surprising results in these women's conference tournaments, but Notre Dame has beaten nearly every Big East foe by 20+.  Skylar Diggins and company get the big win here.
• Confidence:  70%
7. NCAAM:  Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
• Western Kentucky is currently favored by 3.  They have a great history in this conference tournament final.  Florida International has never made it to the conference tournament final game.  In the regular season, Western Kentucky won @ home by 13, and Florida International won @ home by 5. This should be a great game, as these teams match up well, I just give the slight edge to the Hilltoppers.
• Confidence:  50%
8. NCAAM:  Davidson winning margin
• Davidson has beaten Charleston both times they have played this season: at home by 9, and on the road by 16.  Charleston averages 6 3-pointers made per game, and Davidson is currently favored by 7.  The stats point to Davidson winning margin.
• Confidence:  70%
9. NCAAM:  James Madison Dukes
• In their only meeting this season, Northeastern won at home by 2.  Northeastern is currently favored by 2, and both of teams have similar records, ppg, and other stats.  Being that this is the conference title game, it should be close, and anyone's game.  I'm just feeling James Madison and giving them the slight edge here.
• Confidence:  50%
10. NBA:  Brooklyn Nets
• The Nets are riding a 3 game winning streak, and the 76ers have at least a 5 game losing streak.  Deron Williams and the Nets are favored by 5.5, are playing very well, and get the win here.
• Confidence: 80%
11. NHL:  Boston Bruins
• The Bruins are looking to end the Senators' 3 game home winning streak.  They are very capable of doing so.  They have an 8 - 1 - 2 road record, and have not lost in Ottawa since 2009.  The Senators are without their top goalie Craig Anderson and are also missing Erik Karlsson and Jason Spezza.
• Confidence: 80%
12. NCAAW:  Any Other Result
• In their only meeting this season, UConn won by exactly 25.  I didn't find the line on this game, but this is a conference tournament game, and let's face it: conference tournament games are almost always closer than regular season games.
• Confidence:  70%
13. NBA:  Oklahoma City Thunder
• This game is a tough choice.  The Thunder are riding a 5 game winning streak into this game.  The Spurs are without Tony Parker still, and have been playing great, but just got destroyed by the Trailblazers.  They have split their previous two meetings, but given the Spurs most recent debacle, I give the edge to the Thunder
• Confidence: 60%
14. NCAAM:  St. Mary's 3-pointers made or tie
• St. Mary's averages just under 8 3s per game.  These two have a great rivalry and history in their conference tournament final.  They are playing each other in the conference tournament final for the 5th straight time, and St. Mary's won last year.  St. Mary's should definitely cover the spread here.
• Confidence: 70%
15. NCAAM:  Matthew Dellavedova or Tie
• This one could go either way.  They each won the prop on their home floors.  Dellavedova had an uncharacteristically bad day yesterday, but he will bounce back.  He is St. Mary's leading scorer at 16.2 ppg.  Olynyk is the leading scorer for Gonzaga, with 17.3 ppg.  Dellavedova plays more minutes, and has the tie option, so I'm giving him the edge here.
• Confidence: 60%
16. NCAAM:  Manhattan 3-pointers made or tie
• During the regular season, Iona won at home by 8, and Manhattan won at home by 1.  Manhattan averages about 5.6 3-pointers made per game.  Iona is currently favored by 4.  It is surprising that Manhattan averages over 20 points per game less than Iona, but since this is the conference tournament final game, I like Manhattan to keep it close and win with the tie option.
• Confidence:  70% 
17. NCAAM:  5 points or more
• I would wait and see how the first half goes.  If Gonzaga is up by close to double digits or more, pick any other result.  If it's tied or Gonzaga is down, you might want to pick 5 or more. But really I'd just see how the first half goes and what the feel of the game is.
• Confidence: 50%
18. NBA:  Golden State Warriors
• Who can forget Stephen Curry's unbelievable night the last time the Warriors played the Knicks?  I think the Warriors get revenge in this game.  The Knicks will likely get Anthony back for this game, but it is not confirmed.  They are also without Stoudemire.  The Warriors should have David Lee back for this game.  Golden State is favored by 2.5 points.
• Confidence:  70%