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I've done most the write-ups and will finish the rest tomorrow if I can. Thanks again for visiting, and we wish you all good luck with your picks today!
Our top "stash" pick:
- NBA: Chicago Bulls
- Soccer: Mordovia Saransk Win or Draw
- Mordovia has won "this prop" 3 of the last 5 (all the most recent) head-to-head matches against Alania. They are both in the bottom of their league table, so neither team is spectacular. Also, Alania has 2 losses and 3 draws in their last 5 and Mordovia has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5. Mordovia with the draw seems pretty good!
- Confidence: 60%
- MLB: Boston Red Sox
- I really think the Red Sox sweep the Rays in this series. It is a little worrisome that Dempster (3.60 ERA) has allowed 3 runs in 5 innings in both of his previous starts, but those losses came against the Orioles and the Yankees, two teams that are much more talented offensively than Tampa Bay. The Rays will counter with Hellickson (6.35 ERA) who has won 4 of his last 5 starts at Fenway, but since the line is Boston -140 and they are at home, I have to go with the Red Sox in this one.
- Confidence: 70%
- Soccer: Mlada Boleslav Win
- Mlada have won all of their most recent home games except for one (to the league #1 Plzen). They have also won "this prop" in 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches. They are pretty heavy favorites to win. They are 7th in the league table while Ostrava is 13th. Who really knows about Czech liga soccer though?
- Confidence: 50%
- Soccer: Lazio Win or Draw
- I'm not super confident in this pick, but Lazio are at home and have won "this prop" 3 of the last 5 times these teams have played head-to-head. Juventus is 1st in the league table while Lazio is 5th. Juventus didn't look super good at home against Bayern Munich the other day, and I really think Lazio will at least draw, especially since they are at home.
- Confidence: 50%
- Soccer: Benefica wins by 2+
- Benefica has beaten Ferreira by 2+ both times they have played each other this year, including the away leg of this Taca de Portugal. They are at home for this match and are pretty heavy favorites, so I think they'll cover here. I really have no idea about his competition though.
- Confidence: 60%
- MLB: Philadelphia Phillies
- The Reds are desperate to break out of their losing slump, but unfortunately they will face Cliff Lee, who has been dominant against them recently. He is 3 - 0 with a 1.67 ERA in his last 4 starts against them. The Phillies have also won 8 of their last 9 at Cincinnati, outscoring them 34 - 12 in that stretch. Meanwhile, Arroyo is 1 - 6 with a 8.50 ERA in his last 7 starts against the Phillies.
- Confidence: 70%
- MLB: Any Other Number
- This really is a toss-up. More often than not, most scoring happens in baseball games in the middle innings or the final innings than the first 2 or 3. I think 0 runs is probably more likely than 3+, but who knows. Pick at your own risk.
- Confidence: 50%
- NBA: Chicago Bulls
- The Bulls have won 8 of 9, including their last 5 straight against Orlando. They have never swept a season series against the Magic, but they are poised to make history tonight with the very probable return of Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. The Magic are the worst team in the league except for the Bobcats and have nothing to play for.
- Confidence: 80%
- MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates
- The line for this game is only St. Louis -100, which really means a tossup pick. The Pirates have done very well of late, sweeping their last home series against the Reds. They'll continue their homestand against the Cardinals who they went 8 - 7 against last year.
- Confidence: 50%
- NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs
- The Maple Leafs have won every game against the Devils this season. The Devils have lost 9 straight and are obviously trying to avoid yet another defeat, but getting a win against the Maple Leafs, especially with James Reimer in net for the Maple Leafs, who has a 1.99 GAA over his last seven starts. The Devils are 1 - 5 - 6 in their last 12 road games and have only scored 16 goals since Ilya Kovalchuk last played on March 23. Kovalchuk's shoulder injury has really hurt them, and there is no indication as to when he will return. The Maple Leafs get another win here and should be headed to the playoffs for the first time since '03 - '04.
- Confidence: 80%
- MLB: Toronto Bluejays
- Mark Buerhle will be pitching against his former team tonight. He should be very familiar with their hitters, as he was a pitcher for the White Sox for 12 seasons, having phenomenal success there. The Blue Jays have been playing well, especially at home. The line is also -145 Bluejays, which is a very favorable line.
- Confidence: 70%
- NBA: Detroit Pistons
- Detroit is favored by 3 and are at home for this game. Some say the 76ers will be more motivated to win for their coach who is out after the end of the season, but I think the coaching change drama will be a distraction for them. Neither of these teams has anything to play for except pride. Detroit will have more pride at home.
- Confidence: 60%
- Other: Any Other Order
- This order is what 2 of the 4 analysts of the WNBA draft have. I agree with them. I think Skylar Diggins will take the 2nd spot instead of the 3rd.
- Confidence: 60%
- NBA: Dallas Mavericks
- I'm going with the underdog Mavericks here based on their past history against Memphis and their recent game results. Memphis is just 6 - 30 all time in Dallas and have lost the last two of those by an average of 15.5 points. The Mavericks will not be playing in the postseason, so they are just playing to end up with a winning season and finish as strong as possible. They are 4-1 in their last 5 and just had a huge win over Denver at home a few days ago.
- Confidence: 60%
- NBA: Utah Jazz
- The line is Jazz -5. The Jazz just beat the Timberwolves at home on Friday, and they have won 10 of the last 12 meetings against them. Al Jefferson and company will not let the Jazz lose, as they must win all of their remaining games in order to make the playoffs. The only reason I'm not more confident in this pick is that the Timberwolves have been great at home.
- Confidence: 70%
- MLB: Los Angeles Angels
- Other: Any Other Position
- On ESPN's mock WNBA draft board, 3 of the 4 experts have her going as the 11th pick to Connecticut. I think she may even go lower than that and possibly 2nd round. Unless you really follow the WNBA though, I would stay away.
- Confidence: 50%
- NHL: Calgary Flames
- NHL: Columbus Blue Jackets
- NHL: Phoenix Coyotes
- NBA: San Antonio Spurs
Only 4 of the 6 runs Dempster has allowed have been earned (3 in one start, 1 in the other). I didn't expect a sweep in that series coming in, but TB is not ranked higher than 26th in any offensive category, whereas BAL & NYY are 9th and 3rd in BA & OPS. They haven't scored more than 2 runs in any game on the road trip since G1. And Boston pitching is not ranked lower than 5th in any major category. Hellickson is great, but common sense says that if your team can't score, eventually the other team will get one more than you, be it in the fifth inning or extra innings. And it's hard to see him outpitching Price, who made one mistake and the team couldn't pick him up offensively.
ReplyDeleteBut I'm guessing you think Boston is a better pick than Mordovia against a team that hasn't won since August? I'm leaning Boston there as well, but any reason why you think it's the better pick? Or just a gut feeling?
ReplyDeleteIts just because I know and follow and am a lot more familiar with baseball than the Russian premier league. And it turns out Mordovia lost so I got that pick wrong anyway.
ReplyDeleteIts just because I know and follow and am a lot more familiar with baseball than the Russian premier league. And it turns out Mordovia lost so I got that pick wrong anyway.
ReplyDelete