Wednesday, April 3, 2013

SFTC picks for Thursday, April 4

Well our previous poll question didn't last long, as Rutgers fired Mike Rice this morning.  We have a new poll question, which appears to the left, and we hope you'll take the time to vote on it.  We would also love to get your comments and feedback, so please take the time to leave a comment below.  Also if you haven't yet, please follow us on Twitter and join our groups.

We also would like to remind you that we are posting daily picks for Beat the Streak, and our picks can be seen by clicking on the Baseball Games tab above.  We're 6 - 2 on our picks for BTS so far (after 2 days)!

We're undefeated with our top stash picks!  We hope we can keep it up for you and help you win the stash!

Props marked with a * are also featured on the game Streak It Up.

Our top "stash" picks are:
  1. MLB:  Pittsburgh Pirates
  2. *NBA:  San Antonio Spurs win or single digit loss
Our picks for all props:
  1. *Golf:  Matt Kuchar or tie
    • The tie option has lost a few times recently on these early morning golf props.  However, Matt Kuchar is a very solid golfer, and Rory has looked anything but great lately.  Given the recent form of McIlroy, I have to go with Kuchar on this one, but would not risk a high streak on this one.  In practice I try to avoid picking golf unless I have less than a W5. 
    • Confidence: 60% 
  2. MLB:  Yes, 1+ run scored in the first 2 innings
    • In all honesty, this is a toss-up prop.  In the first 2 innings of this series' games, there were 2 runs scored in the first game and 0 in the second.  If there are runs scored, it will most likely be by the Pirates since the Cubs' pitcher is clearly the worst of the two pitchers.  Pick at your own risk though.
    • Confidence: 50%
  3. MLB:  Pittsburgh Pirates
    • In this opening series, the Cubs won the first 3 - 1, and the Pirates won the second yesterday 3 - 0.  The Cubs' pitcher for this game, Travis Wood, went just 6 - 13 with a 4.27 ERA last season.  The Pirates' pitcher for this game,  James McDonald, went 12 - 8 with a 4.21 ERA last season.  The line is Pittsburgh - 140, and they are at home, so I like them to get 2 out of 3 in this series.
    • Confidence: 60%
  4. MLB:  Cincinnatti Reds
    • The Reds won yesterday in the bottom of the 9th by a walk-off run scored by Choo thanks to Joey Votto.  Both of these teams have very talented hitters, so pitching is extremely important.  Bronson Arroyo was 12-10 with a 3.74ERA, 129Ks, and a 1.21WHIP last season.  For the Angels, Joe Blanton was 10-13 with a 4.71ERA, 166Ks, and a 1.26WHIP last season.  Blanton had more Ks, but Arroyo was better in every other category.  The line is Reds -130, and I like them to win a second at home.
    • Confidence: 60%
  5. *MLB:  Detroit Tigers
    • The opening line in this game is Minnesota -130, but I'm taking the Tigers in this one, even though they had a tough loss yesterday, giving up 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th.  The main reason I like the Tigers is that the Twins' pitcher for this game, Mike Pelfrey, underwent Tommy Johns surgery last May, and is very rusty.  He had a terrible spring, so it's clear he isn't back to full health yet.  I think the Tigers' hitters will hit him up and jump out to an early lead.  On the other side, Rick Porcello has been a very solid pitcher for the Tigers and get the win for them and take them to a lead in this series.
    • Confidence: 70%
  6. Golf:  Jim Furyk or tie
    • To be honest I don't know much about golf.  Even though Poulter had the better result in their last tournament, I think Furyk is more consistent and the tie option can come into play more with an 18 hole prop.
    • Confidence: 50% 
  7. *MLB:  Kansas City Royals
    • We lost taking the Royals yesterday.  It was a gutsy pick, but we're going to do it again.  The Royals really had the White Sox's number last year, going 12 - 6 against them.  Obviously they have lost the first two this season, but they have not lost 3 straight to start a season since 2001, and Chicago hasn't started the season 3 - 0 since 1992.  Jeremy Guthrie is a very strong pitcher who went 5 - 0 with a 2.17ERA in his 11 starts with the Royals last year, including four starts against the White Sox in which he went 1 - 0 with a 0.30ERA.
    • Confidence: 60%
  8. Soccer:  Chelsea Win by 2+
    • The Blues are coming off a shocking upset of Manchester United in the FA Cup quarterfinals.  If they play like they did against United, they should win this game by 2 or more goals easily.  But at the same time, in their last Premier League game they lost to Southhampton.  At this point in the season Chelsea is still alive in 3 competitions, not to mention the Club World Cup that they competed in earlier this year.  You have to wonder if this schedule is starting to take its toll on them.  Chelsea should beat Rubin Kazan, even though they are a good team and currently in 4th in the Russian Premier League table.
    • Confidence: 60%
  9. Soccer:  Benfica Win by 2+
    • Benfica currently leads the Portugese Liga table and has won their last three matches by a combined 15-1.  Newcastle arguably plays in a better league, but they find themselves down at the bottom of that table.  I have to pick Benfica to dominate this game and win it at home by more than 2.
    • Confidence: 60%
  10. *MLB:  Baltimore Orioles
    • The Rays squeaked out a 9th inning run to win the game yesterday.  The Orioles won the first game and I like them to win this one as well.  The Rays' pitcher, Roberto Hernandez was acquired from the Indians at the end of last season.  In his brief time with the Rays last season, he went 0 - 3 with a 7.53ERA and only 2 strikeouts.  The Orioles' pitcher on the other hand, Miguel Gonzalez, went 9 - 4 with a 3.25ERA last season.  The line opened at Tampa Bay - 135 but is now -130.  However, I like the Orioles against a struggling Hernandez.
    • Confidence: 70%
  11. NHL:  Tampa Bay Lightning
    • The Lightning, with their newly bolstered roster, should get the win here against the Hurricanes, who are struggling mightily lately. The Lightning have had their number this season.
    • Confidence: 60%
  12. NHL:  New York Islanders
    • Man the SM knows how to put up tricky hockey props.  I really can see this one going either way, but I think the Islanders have more motivation, and are definitely playing better.  They are undefeated against the Capitals this season.
    • Confidence: 50%
  13. *NHL:  Toronto Maple Leafs
    • Both of these teams could really use this win for playoff appearance, although the Flyers need it more.  The Maple Leafs have been dominant lately though, scoring 30 goals over their last 8 games, and an average of 3.1 goals per game this season.  They are also 10-6-2 at home while the Flyers are just 4-8-2 on the road.
    • Confidence: 70%
  14. *MLB:  Boston Red Sox
    • The line is New York -125.  Boston's starting pitcher for this game, Ryan Dempster, who they acquired from Texas, went 12-8 with a 3.38ERA and 153Ks last season.  Andy Pettite, of the Yankees, went 5-4 with a 2.87ERA last season.  Again, the Yankees still don't have Jeter, ARod, Texeira, or Granderson.  Basically it comes down to Robinson Cano and Kevin Youkilis for the Yankees.  The Red Sox clearly have the better line-up and it would be phenomenal for them to start the season 3 - 0, especially against the Yankees.
    • Confidence: 70%
  15. NBA:  Brooklyn Nets
    • All of the Bulls' players are getting injured at the worst possible time.  The Nets are now 2 1/2 games ahead of them in the eastern conference finals, and if the Bulls want to better their playoff picture, they must start winning games.  I just don't see it happening tonight though.  The Nets may be without Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace, but the Bulls are without Noah, Belinelli, Hamilton, Rose (obviously), and now Gibson.  With so many guys injured for the Bulls, it seems illogical to pick against the Nets at home.  Stranger things have happened though.
    • Confidence:  70%
  16. NCAAM:  Any Other Player
    • There are 8 total contestants in this competition.  That gives Any Other Player higher odds to win.  My pick is either Ramon Galloway from La Salle, or McGee from Iowa State, both of whom are obviously on the any other player list.  I've really not followed this competition before though, and I wouldn't put much of a streak on this.
    • Confidence: 60%
  17. *NCAAM:  Baylor Bears
    • These teams are fairly evenly matched and have similar records.  The Hawkeyes are favored by 2, and this should be a really close game, but I think the Bears are slightly better and have done well through this tournament.  
    • Confidence: 50%
  18. NCAAM:  Roy Devan Marble or tie
    • Marble and Jackson both have very similar point totals over the season and throughout this NIT tournament.  Since they are so closely matched, I'm going with Marble and the tie option, as it may turn out to be huge in this prop.
    • Confidence: 60%
  19. *NBA:  San Antonio Spurs win or single digit loss
    • San Antonio beat the Thunder both times they played in San Antonio.  The Thunder won by 17 in their only meeting in OKC.  They are favored by 8.5 in this game, and are trying to reduce the Spurs' lead atop the western conference.  They have had 4 days rest, but the the Spurs should have everyone back except for maybe Ginobli, and they will not want to relinquish any of their lead.  They might not win, but should definitely keep it within single digits.
    • Confidence: 70%
  20. *NHL:  Phoenix Coyotes
    • I'm just feeling the Coyotes in this one, who beat the Kings at home a couple days ago.
    • Confidence: 60%
  21. NCAAM:  Baylor first to 10 points
    • You will want to see how the first half goes, how the teams are playing going into the half, and who gets the ball to start the 2nd half.  Baylor usually comes out strong to start the 2nd halves of games, and I like this option even more if they are behind at half.  Check back at halftime though in case our pick changes.
    • Confidence: 50%

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