SFTC Picks for Tuesday, May 21

Many thanks to Jim for doing writeups yesterday.  Tomorrow is my last final, so after that I'll be able to dedicate more time to the site.   It's late so I'll finish the rest in the morning, but here are the first 5 to get you started.  Enjoy!

Our top stash pick:

1. MLB:  Cincinnati Reds
2. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals

Our picks for all props:

1. Other:  Kentucky wins or loses by 1
• During the regular season, these teams played three games in succession in Oxford.  Kentucky won 2 of those games and lost the middle one 11 - 5.  This is the first game of the SEC tournament which is being played in Hoover, Alabama, and Ole Miss is just 1 - 2 on neutral fields, whereas Kentucky is 3 - 1 on neutral fields.  Only 5 of Kentucky's 24 losses have been by 1 run, so they may need to win the game to win this prop, but I'm just feeling Kentucky in this one, especially with the percentage being so high for Ole Miss.
• Confidence:  65%
2. Soccer:  Liberec Win
• Liberec sits 3rd in the league table with a goal differential of +9.  Teplice sits in position 11 with a goal differential of -10.  These two did just play to a 2 - 2 draw back on April 16, but that match was a Cup match, not a league match, and it was at Teplice.  Liberec should get the win at home.
• Confidence:  65%
3. Soccer:  Shamrock Rovers Win
• Shamrock is clearly favored in this match, but the teams sites were down so I couldn't check league table positions or goal differentials or other stats.  
• Confidence:  50%
4. MLB:  Baltimore Orioles
•  Man the Orioles let one slip away from them last night.  I think they get revenge tonight and break out of their 7 game home losing streak by ending the Yankees' 3 game winning streak.  The Yankees send Phil Hughes to the mound, who has had a bad couple of starts recently, giving up 13 runs and 13 hits over just 6 innings.   The Orioles send Miguel Gonzalez to the mound who is just coming off the disabled list so he may be a tad rusty.  I think he'll be good enough to get the O's a win though.
• Confidence: 70%
5. MLB:  Toronto Blue Jays
• They should have a prop about if Evan Longoria will extend his hitting streak to 15 games.  The guy is just on fire right now.  Unfortunately, I don't think his team wins tonight.  They lost to the Blue Jays last night, mostly because of their bullpen.  It has really been an issue for them this year.  Cobb actually pitches better at home than on the road, so since the Rays are on the road for this game, I like the Blue Jays.
• Confidence:  70%
6. MLB:  Cincinnati Reds
• The line is currently at Reds -100, but the Reds should be favored by much more than that.  They have won 8 of the last 10 games at the Mets' stadium.  Mike Leake is 3 - 2 with a 3.72 ERA overall, but in his last four starts against the Mets he has posted a 1.65 ERA.  Jonathan Niese is 3 - 2 with a 5.40 ERA overall, but has gone 1 - 4 with a 5.61 ERA in his last four starts against the Reds, losing his last two at home.  Another story line to follow in this game is if Jay Bruce will extend his hitting streak to 12 games.
• Confidence:  70%
7. MLB:  Philadelphia Phillies
• Normally I would have a high confidence percentage on any team against the Marlins, but one of the only teams they can beat is the Phillies.  I mean miracles really do happen when the Marlins, the worst team in all of baseball can beat the Phillies.  Not that the Phillies are one of the best teams by any stretch, but there are definitely a few teams that are worse than them.  But, the Marlins have beaten the Phillies 4 out of 8 times this season, including the last 2 straight, with the most recent being a 5 - 1 victory yesterday.  I think their mini win streak ends tonight though as Tyler Cloyd comes up from the minors to lead the Phillies to a win.
• Confidence:  50%
8. NHL:  New York Rangers
• This series is looking an awful lot like the Rangers' first round playoff series against the Capitals.  They were down 0 - 2 in that series as well before winning the next two at home and eventually forcing a game 7 which they dominated 5 - 0.  They again find themselves down 0 - 2.  Can they comeback and win the series?  Most likely not.  They are 2 - 19 all-time at winning series in which they started 0 - 2.  However, they won't go down easy.  I think they'll at least take this game if not the next one.  Only time will tell.
• Confidence: 70%
9. MLB:  Los Angeles Dodgers
• The line is currently at Dodgers -122.  Greinke is back on the mound to help the Dodgers win two in a row against his former team.  After missing about a month due to a broken collarbone, he had a pretty decent last start, though he only lasted 5 innings due to fatigue.  Hopefully he'll last longer this game, as the Dodgers can really use his strong pitching.  They've not been scoring a lot of runs, which combined with player injuries, has been the biggest contributor to their being last in the NL West.  Greinke is 2 - 0 with a 1.62 ERA on the season.  The Brewers counter with Hiram Burgos, who is 1 - 2 with a 6.58 ERA on the season.
• Confidence:  70%
10. MLB:  Houston Astros
• Like the Marlins, the Astros are one of the worst in baseball.  The Royals haven't been great of late either, losing their last 4.  The Royals should win, but I'm taking a chance with the Astros.  Davis is 3 - 3 but with a 5.98 ERA, while Norris is 4 - 4 with a 4.32 ERA.  
• Confidence:  50%
11. MLB:  Chicago White Sox
• The line for this game is close to even, with Chicago slightly favored at -100.  The White Sox won yesterday, and should do the same today with Doubront on the mound for the Red Sox.  The left hander is 3 - 1 with a 6.03 ERA overall and started out the season good, but has really struggled of late, going  0 - 1 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts.   Quintana has been pretty good for the White Sox, and with Adam Dunn and company finally finding their hitting stroke, I'm taking the White Sox.
• Confidence:  70%
12. NBA:  Orlando Magic or Chicago Bobcats
• Even though the Magic and Bobcats are the 2 teams most likely to get the #1 Draft pick, the "favorites" hardly ever win the draft lottery.  Per @ESPNStreak, Any Other Team is a 55.1% favorite.  I hope the Bobcats get it, as they are the most in need, but I would not pick this with higher than a win 3 probably, as David Stern and the NBA always seem to screw the most deserving team out of a #1 pick.
• Confidence: 50%
13. MLB:  Arizona Diamondbacks
• Although the Rockies are favored, I'm taking the Diamondbacks, as they have been a great road team, and lead the season series, 5 - 3.  
• Confidence:  60%
14. NBA:  San Antonio Spurs
• The Spurs are favored by 5.5 points.  They won in dominant fashion in game 1 and held Zach Randolph to just 2 points!  He'll have to play better if Memphis is to have any chance at winning this series.  The Grizzlies have been in this position before, as they lost the first game to both the Clippers and Thunder and eventually won those series.  I think the Grizzlies will eventually figure out how to play against the Spurs, I just don't think it happens tonight.
• Confidence: 70%
15. NBA:  Tim Duncan
• Mark Gasol had a decent game one of this series, but he's been pretty absent in these playoffs. Duncan on the other hand has been consistent as always.  He's one of the most consistent players in the NBA.  He may not be the most exciting player to watch, but he sure is dependable.
• Confidence: 70%
16. NHL:  San Jose Sharks
• History is definitely on the Sharks's side for this game.  The home team has won every game of this series and both the Sharks and the Kings are undefeated at home this postseason.  This season, the Sharks went 17 - 2 - 5 at home.  Gotta go with the home team here.
• Confidence: 70%
17. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals
• Amazingly, the Padres have been pretty good lately, winning their last 3 and 5 of 7 overall.  Sending Volquez to the mound, and with Wainwright starting for the Cardinals, should end that streak.  Wainwright is 5 - 3 with a 2.51 ERA on the season but is 3 - 2 with a 0.97 ERA in his last 5 starts against the Padres.  Volquez is just 3 - 4 with a 5.55 ERA.  The Cardinals lost yesterday, but are favorites at -135 tonight and should definitely get the win.
• Confidence: 75%
18. MLB:  San Francisco Giants
• I'm torn on this pick.  Both pitchers have had great success against the opposing team.  Strasburg hasn't lost a start to the Giants, but the Nationals are dealing with several injuries and are struggling offensively lately.  Matt Cain has won and lost games to the Nationals, but the Giants have won his last 5 starts.  I'm rolling with the Giants because they are at home and have been better than the Nationals of late.
• Confidence: 55%
19. NBA:  93 points or more
• 100 points were scored in game 1 of this series.  Still, you'll want to see how the first half goes and plan accordingly.
• Confidence: 65%