SFTC Picks for Monday, May 12

Well to be totally honest, I sucked it up in my first day back yesterday.  I didn't follow my gut enough.  You know how that is, when you have a feeling you should pick the underdog or pick against the grain, but you don't do it?  Well that was me yesterday.  

For all of you females who visit this site, we wish you a (belated) Happy Mothers' Day!  

Now on to sports.  Jim will add his NBA writeups soon!

Our top stash picks:

1. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals win by 2+ runs
2. MLB:  Washington Nationals

Our picks for every prop:

1. Soccer:  HJK Win
• I'm not sure why the percentage is so highly in favor of FC Lahti.  I'm guessing it's because most people just take the win/draw option with the home team.  I just don't see it in this match. HJK is at the top of their table, while FC Lahti is 10th.  HJK won 4 of their last 5 head to head against FC Lahti.  HJK is also pretty heavily favored in this match.  All signs point to an HJK win.
• Confidence: 70%
2. MLB:  Cleveland Indians
• The Indians have been one of the hottest teams in baseball lately and have just tied it up with Detroit atop the AL Central.  The Yankees have been doing well lately as well, winning 5 straight.  This is largely thanks to Robinson Cano, who has done very well against the Indians this season.  Although the Yankees smoked the Indians in their last series, I think the Indians will take this game, and here's why.  One, Robinson Cano has been the Yankees' biggest offensive weapon, especially against the Indians, but since they'll be playing a double-header today, Cano will sit one game.  I'm assuming it will be the first game, but you'll want to check lineups in the morning.  Second, Masterson is definitely the better pitcher in this matchup.
• Confidence: 65%
3. Soccer: Brighton Win
• I really don't know much about either of these teams.  In their two most recent head to head matches, Brighton won at home 3 - 0 and drew on the road 0 - 0.  Brighton definitely has the better record and is at home, so they should get the win.
• Confidence: 60%
4. MLB:  New York Yankees
• This is the 2nd game of the double-header between the Yankees and Indians today.  Vidal Nuno will make his first major league start, and Bauer has not faced many of the Yankees, including Robinson Cano, before.  It will be interesting to see how these pitcher fare.  If Cano plays in this game, I especially like the Yanks.
• Confidence: 60%
5. Soccer: Real Sociedad Wins by 2+ goals
• Real Sociedad has only beaten Granada by 2+ one of the last 5 times they've played them, though that 2+ win was at home.  Real has beaten teams higher than Granada in the league table by 2+, and most of those were at home.  When Real does win by 2+, it's at home.  
• Confidence: 65%
6. MLB:  Pittsburgh Pirates
• The Pirates are coming off of a dominating series over the Mets in New York.  They have historically struggled against the Brewers, but with Burnett on the mound and the Pirates being at home, I'm rolling with them here.  Burnett has won his last 3 starts, and has allowed 2 runs or fewer in each of his last 5.  The Brewers are really struggling this month, losing 9 of their first 10.
• Confidence: 70%
7. NHL:  Boston Bruins
• If you lost with the Ducks in a game 7 at home last night, we feel you.  We had them as well.  Will the same thing happen tonight?  I sure hope not.  After being down 3 - 1 in this series, the Maple Leafs have found a way to win the last two, and now are in position to overcome such a deficit for the first time in 71 years.  History is not on their side however, as they are 1 - 8 in such scenarios.  Boston has experience in game sevens of series, and should take this one at home.
• Confidence: 75%
8. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals win by 2+ runs
• The Cards definitely have the better pitcher in this matchup.  Lynn was 5 - 0, now 5 - 1 after losing to the Cubs on Tuesday.  He has never lost back to back starts in his career, and I'll be extremely surprised if he makes history tonight.  The Mets just got beat down by the Pirates, and their starting pitcher for this game, Jeremy Hefner, is 0 - 4 with a 4.63 ERA.  The Cardinals have been hitting very well lately and should light him up.  If you're wondering, the line is Cards -200
• Confidence: 75%
9. NHL:  Washington Capitals
• Man, again another game 7 in NHL playoffs.  This one is a tough call, because the games between these two have been really tight.  11 of the last 12 playoff games between them have been decided by 1 goal.  The Caps are just 2 - 5 at home in game 7s (3 - 7 overall), but the Rangers are 0 - 5 on the road in game 7s.  Since the Caps are at home, I'm taking them to win this must win game.
• Confidence: 60%
10. MLB:  Colorado Rockies
• This is one of those times I was talking about in the beginning of my post.  The stats favor the Cubs, but I just have a feeling the Rockies will win this one.  The Cubs are favored (-125), and Wood has been a solid pitcher this season, but he is 0 - 1 with a 2.77ERA in three games against the Rockies.  The Rockies also have one of the best offenses in baseball, but getting a win on the road may prove difficult.
• Confidence: 55%
11. MLB:  Chicago White Sox
• Wow, this is a game between two of the worst teams in baseball.  Chicago ranks last in all of the major leagues in most every offensive statistic.  It's gotta be tough on their pitching staff, because their pitching rotation has been great, they just haven't gotten much run support at all.  The Twins aren't much better though.  They have lost 5 straight and 13 of 16 of ther last home meetings against the White Sox.  Chicago has the better pitcher in this game and they are slightly favored (-100), so I like them to win an ugly one on the road.
• Confidence: 55%
12. MLB:  Atlanta Braves
• The DBacks are favored (-110) in this game, but this really could go either way.  Both pitchers have nearly identical stats, and both teams have struggled recently.  The Braves lost their last three against the Giants, and the DBacks have lost their last 2.  I just think the Braves are more talented and I think they'll get the win here.
• Confidence: 60%
13. MLB:  Los Angeles Angels
• Who would've thought that the Royals would have a better record than the Angels at this point in the season?  The Royals did very well in the offseason to acquire some great pitching talent and that has been the major reason for their success.  Their scheduled starter, Luis Mendoza, has been one of the worst in the rotation though, and is 0 - 2 with a 6.38 ERA on the season.  The Angels counter with Joe Blanton, who is winless so far this season, going 0 - 6 with a 5.66 ERA.  The line is Angels -138, and since they are at home, I like them to get a win against the Royals who are in a bit of a funk lately.
• Confidence: 70%
14. MLB:  Texas Rangers
• The Rangers have been one of the hottest offensive teams in baseball.  Who can forget though how Oakland beat Texas to capture the AL West crown last year?  Oakland did very well against Texas at home last season, but they are in a real offensive slump lately.  Grimm has slightly better stats than Griffin, and Texas will have Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler back in the lineup for this game.  For these reasons, I'm taking the Rangers.
• Confidence: 70%
15. MLB:  Washington Nationals
• The Dodgers are just awful right now, even though they did win their last 2 against the Marlins. Beckett is without a win through his first 7 starts for the first time in his career.  Zimmerman and the Nationals are going in the opposite direction.  Zimmerman could be the first major league pitcher this season to win 7 games.  He is 6 - 1 with a 1.59 ERA and has been just superb.  I'd be very surprised if the Nationals lose.
• Confidence: 85%