SFTC Picks for May 14

Man these baseball results have been very unpredictable.  It's hard when you're making picks and doing write-ups for every prop every day to build a super high winning percentage.  We did go 2 - 0 on our top stash picks yesterday though!  

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Now on to sports.  All of our predictions are now posted.  We wish you the best of luck!

Our top stash picks:

1. MLB:  San Francisco Giants
2. NBA:  Warriors: Win or single digit loss

Our picks for every prop:

1. Tennis:  Richard Gasquet
• These two have played each other 3 times in the past couple of years on 3 different surfaces with each result ending in a Gasquet victory. Dimitrov is starting to come into his game as evidenced by his victory over Novak Djokovic in Madrid but he still needs consistency before his talent truly makes an impact. Gasquet, the man with a beautiful one hand backhand, will take this match in 3 sets as long as his body holds up.
• Confidence: 70%
2. Soccer:  Dukla Prague
• I had to do some serious searching to find informaiton about these two teams.  I'll be the first to admit that I do not catch a lot of games from the Czech league.  I had to double check how to spell Czech, which isn't a good sign.  Dukla is currently in the 6th spot in the table while Brno is number 12.  And that's pretty much all I have to offer.
• Confidence: 50%
3. Soccer:  Wigan: Win, Draw, lose by 1
• Some days I hate my job.  Oh, not because it is an awful or a boring job, it's because going to work makes me miss exciting matches like this one.  Both of these teams are desperate and both for different reasons.  Wigan may have won the FA Cup title, but they are in trouble of becoming the first team ever to win an FA Cup and be relegated to the lower division in the same season.  They need to get a result against Arsenal to keep their hopes alive.  Arsenal is currently sitting in 5th place in the table, just 2 point behind Spurs for the 4th spot.  A top four finish is huge for a team like Arsenal with such a long history in the Champions League.  Yes the EPL title may have already been wrapped up, but there are other exciting story lines in the league as the season ends, and this game should provide one of the best.  Stupid work.
• Confidence: 50%
4. Soccer:  Bordeaux
• This is the Coupe de France, the French version of England's FA Cup or Spain's Copa del Rey.  Bordeaux is currently in 8th place in the Ligue 1 table while Troyes is in 19th place facing relegation.  Hmm, sounds like we just saw this game over the weekend.  A team in the top half of the table facing a team near relegation and the team on the verge of being relegated came out victorious.  Well, I don't believe lighting will strike twice, Bordeaux will win and advance to the finals.
• Confidence: 70%
5. MLB:  Baltimore Orioles
• The Orioles took a huge hit to their starting rotation on Sunday, with Chen getting injured and placed on the DL.  Fortunately, Tillman has been one of the best in their starting rotation, winning his last 3 and posting a 2.03 ERA over his last 4 starts.  The Orioles are among the best in baseball in most offensive categories.  They haven't faced the Padres yet this season, but given the Padres recent form and the Orioles' current success, and the fact that the line is Orioles -143, they seem like a pretty safe bet.
• Confidence: 70%
6. MLB:  Philadelphia Phillies
• The Indians just demolished the Phillies in their two-game series about two weeks ago, outscoring them 20 - 2 and out-hitting them 31 - 8.  They are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  However, they will be tired, as they just played a series with Detroit over the weekend and then a double-header yesterday with the Yankees.  The Phillies will be more rested, and have Pettibone on the mound, who is 2 - 0 with a 3.63 ERA.  Kazmir on the other hand is 2 - 1 with a 4.87 ERA.
• Confidence: 60%
7. MLB:  Seattle Mariners
• Wow, what a pitching matchup this should be.  Felix Hernandez is 4 - 0 with a 0.71 ERA in his last 5 starts.  He is also 4 - 1 with a 1.13 ERA in his last 5 road starts against the Yankees.  Overall, he's 7 - 2 with a 2.19 ERA in his last 10 against the Yanks.  Pitching opposite him will be CC Sabathia, who is 4 - 0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last 5 at home, and has won his last 8 starts against the Mariners.  I'm not super confident about it, but I'm taking the Mariners because they seem to win when featured on SFTC, and because I think the Yanks will be tired after their double-header yesterday.
• Confidence: 55%
8. MLB:  Pittsburgh Pirates
• After losing a game yesterday that they should have won, I think the Pirates will bounce back and get the win tonight.  For whatever reason, the Brewers really struggle when Lohse pitches, as he's gotten 1 or 0 runs of support 5 times in his 7 starts.  He is 1 - 4 with a 3.53 ERA.  Locke, on the other hand, is 3 - 1 with a 2.97 ERA.  The Pirates have only beaten the Brewers once in their last 11 meetings, but I think history is made again tonight.
• Confidence: 70%
9. MLB:  San Francisco Giants
• After his suspension last season for PEDs, Melky Cabrera now welcomes his former team to Toronto.  Unfortunately for him, his former team, not his current one, is going to win.  Truthfully, Dickey has been awful for the Blue Jays this season, especially at home.  He posts a 6.75 ERA at home and a 3.55 ERA on the road.  I know, it's strange.  The Giants will counter with Barry Zito, who is 3 - 1 with a 2.75 ERA.  The line is currently Toronto -123, but I just don't see them winning this game.  
• Confidence: 80%
10. NBA:  Indiana Pacers
• After game 1 I was sure that the Pacers were gonna win this series.  After game two, I was positive that the Knicks were the better team and were gonna win this series.  After game 3, I... I... I honestly don't know.  I think it is clear that Indiana has found some of the Knicks weaknesses and are able to exploit them through their size down low.  The Knicks rely heavily on their jump shooting and do not have much of a presence down low to defend the Indiana big men and keep them off the glass.  Most people did not give the Pacers a shot because well, lets face it, they are kinda boring to watch to the average NBA fan.  But the Pacers were first in the NBA in rebounding and 2nd in scoring defense. And if I know a couple of things, I know that rebounding and defense can win games and championships and can make up for a lack of offensive power.  The Grizzlies are doing it out West and the Pacers are doing it in the East.
• Confidence: 60%
11. MLB:  Tampa Bay Rays
• Both the Rays and the Red Sox are different teams from the start of the season.  Boston started off 20 - 8 but have gone just 2 - 8 since then.  The Rays started off 4 - 8 but are 15 - 10 since then.  Matt Moore has been spectacular for the Rays, although his control has been lacking at times.  He's 6 - 0 with a 2.14 ERA.  The Red Sox counter with John Lackey, who is 1 - 3 with a 2.82 ERA.  Although the Rays were swept by the Sox in their last series, the Rays' current form, the fact that they are favorites at -142, and the fact that they are at home convince me to take them.
• Confidence: 75%
12. NBA:  Carmelo Anthony Points
• Anthony has averaged 13.33 points per half in this series against the Pacers.  George has averaged 11.67 points + rebounds per half in this series.  Going by averages, Anthony should win.  I like this even more since the Knicks are down 1 - 2 in this series and Anthony should come out hot and win this game for them.
• Confidence: 70%
13. NHL:  Senators win or lose by 1
• This is a tough one.  The Penguins beat the Senators by 2 twice and by 1 once during the regular season.  They only beat the Islanders by 2 twice in the last series, although both times were at home.  They got more fight than I think they were expecting from the Islanders, and the Senators will give them even more.  The Senators just steamrolled the Canadiens, beating them in 5 games.  I think the Penguins will win, but the game will be close.  The only reason I would think about taking the Pens by 2+ is that they are at home.
• Confidence: 65%
14. NHL:  Any Other Player
• Both of these teams sure can score, so I don't think the no goal scored will come into play.  Both teams also have numerous options for scoring goals.  Neither Crosby nor Malkin have been the leading goalscorers of late for the the Pens.  In fact I don't think they scored at all in their last 2 or 3 games.  Any other player looks like the best option here.
• Confidence: 65%
15. MLB:  Chicago Cubs
• I got burned taking the Rockies yesterday.  I won't do it again.  They can't seem to hit the broad side of a barn lately.  If Chicago loses this game, it will likely be because of their bullpen, which has been a major disappointment lately.  The Cubs' starter, Carlos Villanueva, is 1 - 2 with a 3.02 ERA.  The Rockies counter with Jeff Francis, who is 1 - 3 with a 6.90 ERA.  The Cubs are favorites at -118 and they have won 15 of 19 home meetings against the Rockies.
• Confidence: 70%
16. MLB:  Minnesota Twins
• The White Sox had a 2 - 0 lead yesterday but couldn't hold it and ended up getting spanked 10 - 3.  This game features two very solid pitchers.  Peavy though has struggled with back spasms, so he may not last long.  Correia pitches much better at home than on the road.  He is 3 - 0 with a 1.86 ERA there this season.  The White Sox just can't seem to generate any offense, and I think tonight will be more of the same.
• Confidence: 65%
17. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals
• The Mets are in a real slump offensively.  The only ray of hope for them is that the Cardinals are bringing up John Gast from the minors to start tonight.  He has been very solid in the minors though, posting a 3 - 1 record with a 1.16 ERA in six starts.  The line is Cards -162, and even though they send a rookie to the mound, I think they still get the win tonight.
• Confidence: 70%
18. NBA:  No neither team will score 26+ points in the 3rd quarter
• Carmelo Anthony is capable of scoring 26 points by himself in a quarter.  But the Pacers are playing on their home court, they are going to control the tempo of the game and if they are able to do that, I don't see either team getting to 26 points in any quarter, so I have to say they won't in the third either.  But don't make this pick until you get a feel for how the Knicks are shooting tonight.
• Confidence: 50%
19. NBA:  Warriors: Win or single digit loss
• I would have been tempted to pick the Warriors if this pick was straight up, but now you are spotting me 10 points, almost seems like a no brainer.  Two of the 4 games in this series have gone to OT and all have been close down the stretch.  The Warriors have looked better on the Spurs home court for some reason and will be desperate to get the win tonight and take the lead back to Oakland and try to close out the series.  If the Warriors can't win tonight, their only hope would be to win in San Antonio in a game 7.  The Dubs will try to do whatever is necessary to avoid that scenario.  But like the Knicks against the Pacers, the Warriors ability to win this game will depend a lot on how they are shooting.  If either Curry or Thompson can explode in a quarter and turn a close game into a 15 point lead, then well, clearly the Warriors have a better chance of winning.  They have to make shots and continue to defend Duncan and Parker well.  
• Confidence: 70%
20. MLB:  Arizona Diamondbacks
• The line for this game is DBacks -135.  The DBacks are at home.  They were manhandled by the Braves yesterday and are seeking revenge.  All of these are good reasons to take the DBacks, but the best reason is because they have one of the best pitchers in baseball, Patrick Corbin, on the mound tonight.  He is 5 - 0 with a 1.75 ERA this season.  
• Confidence: 70%
21. MLB:  Texas Rangers
• Although the Rangers lost yesterday and have lost 5 straight to Oakland, I think the bleeding stops tonight.  Holland has been great this season, and he has historically been good against the A's.  Colon on the other hand has not been pitching well, and he was tagged for 6 runs and 8 hits through 4 innings in his last start on Thursday.  
• Confidence: 65%
22. MLB:  Kansas City Royals
• I took the Angels yesterday because Mendoza had a 6+ ERA and I thought for sure the Angels could light him up.  Well they didn't, and got clobbered, 11 - 4.  If they can't get a hit against Mendoza, they surely can't hit against Guthrie.  He's been on fire lately, posting a 3 - 0 record with a 0.47 ERA in his last 3 starts.  He hasn't lost a game in 18 straight starts (since August 8 of last year), and I just don't think the Angels can give him his first loss.  
• Confidence: 70%
23. MLB:  Los Angeles Dodgers
• Even though the Dodgers haven't given Kershaw much run support, I think they finally break through and get him a win tonight.  They have a great chance to do so with Haren on the mound for the Nationals.  They Nationals may also be without Bryce Harper.  Kershaw has gone 1 - 0 with a 0.89 ERA and 21 strikeouts over his last three starts.  
• Confidence: 70%
24. NHL:  Los Angeles Kings
• This should be a great series.  The series and this game could really go either way.  They split their regular season match-ups, with each team winning two at home.  I'm taking the Kings here because they're at home and they're the defending Stanley Cup champs.
• Confidence: 55%