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I don't like too many of the props today, and if I had a streak of 8 or more I'd probably sit the day out. Good luck though today and thanks for visiting the site!
Our top stash pick:
- NHL: Los Angeles Kings
- Golf: Phil Mickelson
- Mickelson has won quite a few of these 9 hole props. I'm not very sure about this pick though.
- Confidence: 50%
- Tennis: Maria Sharapova
- Sharapova is my favorite women's tennis player, but I'm trying to not let that influence my pick. She did oddly lose the first set 6 - 0 yesterday, but other than that she is playing extraordinary tennis right now. Azarenka is also playing extremely well. Although Azarenka holds the head-to-head lead at 7 - 5, I'm giving the edge to Sharapova because she is slightly favored in this match and beat Azarenka on clay in Stuttgart last year and Rome the year before that, and because she is the defending champion of this tournament.
- Confidence: 65%
- Tennis: Sara Errani total games won
- These two have played head to head 5 times, with 5 victories for Williams. The last victory was in Madrid earlier in the year though Errani challenged for a set. Errani's best surface is clay and she has been at this stage before so expect a fight. Williams has too much firepower and steam to lose but it should be a good match to watch.
- Confidence: 70%
- Soccer: Russia U21 Win/Draw/Lose by 1
- These two teams last met in March. Spain won by 2 (3 - 1), but only thanks to a penalty in the 93rd minute. This game is being played in Israel, so neither team will be home field advantage.
- Confidence: 60%
- Golf: Brandt Snedeker
- Dustin Johnson missed the cut and withdrew from his last two tournaments, respectively. Snedeker has been playing very good golf lately.
- Confidence: 65%
- Soccer: Netherlands Win or Draw
- The odds I've seen have Netherlands win/draw at -180 and Germany to win at +150. The Netherlands have 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Germany has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. They haven't met head to head since 2011.
- Confidence: 65%
- MLB: Boston Red Sox
- This series is tied 1 - 1, but Texas leads the season series 4 - 1. Holland is 5 - 2 with a 2.81 ERA. Lester is 6 - 2 with a 3.53 ERA. Although he has a higher ERA, I think Lester gets the job done, especially at home.
- Confidence: 60%
- MLB: Oakland A's
- The A's and White Sox just completed a 3-game series in Oakland, which the A's swept, holding the White Sox scoreless in two of the three games. The A's pitching staff has been the major contributor to their success. Today's pitcher faced off in one of those games, a game which Oakland won 4 - 3 but one for which Stailey did not receive a decision. The A's are 8 - 2 in their last 10 compared to 2 - 8 for the White Sox. The line is Oakland -132.
- Confidence: 70%
- MLB: Kansas City Royals
- The Royals have the worst home record in baseball, but they have had great success at home against the Twins, winning 4 of 5. They have also won 16 of their last 19 against them overall. The Twins' starter, Mike Pelfrey, has allowed batters to hit .332 against him while going 3 - 6 with a 6.66 ERA on the season. Davis hasn't been that much better of late, but he has been good against the Twins, going 3 - 0 with a 2.16 ERA in 4 starts against them.
- Confidence: 70%
- MLB: Milwaukee Brewers
- This is a tough one. I could really see either team winning. Peralta and Cloyd battled it out last Saturday, a game which the Brewers won 4 - 3. I'm just giving the edge to the Brewers since they should have Braun back in the lineup and they are at home. The line is Brewers -141.
- Confidence: 60%
- MLB: Colorado Rockies
- The Rockies are undefeated against the Padres this season, going 6 - 0. The line is Rockies -137. Chacin won his previous two starts against the Padres this season. He hasn't been as good since then though, and is 3 - 3 with a 4.26 ERA on the season. Cashner's last start against the Rockies was a loss back in September. He has only faced them as a reliever this season. The Rockies should continue their dominance over the Padres at home.
- Confidence: 70%
- NBA: San Antonio Spurs
- All right! We've made it to the NBA Finals! Are you excited? I know I am. This should be a great series. I've read a lot of opinions about this game. Here are mine and some interesting stats for this game. First, many people think the Spurs will be rusty from so much time off. They haven't played since May 27. They could be rusty, but more likely is that they will be sharp and ready to go, as they've had time to prepare and see how other teams have had success against Miami. Second, a lot of people think Miami will win the series since they have home-court advantage. This may be true since home teams are 50 - 16 in game 1 of the Finals, but here's an interesting stat for you. The Spurs have never lost game 1 of the NBA Finals, and are one of only 2 teams with a perfect record in game 1 of the Finals. Although the Spurs lost the two regular season meetings against the Heat, I like them to win this game, re-take home court advantage and go on to win the championship. A couple of other interesting stats for you: Tim Duncan is one of only 3 players to play in the Finals in 3 different decades, and Greg Popovich is almost 22 years older than Erik Spoelstra, the largest age differential between head coaches in NBA Finals history.
- Confidence: 70%
- NBA: Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobli or Tie
- The regular season ppg averages for Parker, Duncan, and Ginobli are 20.3, 17.8, and 11.8 respectively. They have averaged 23.0, 17.8 and 11.5 ppg respectively in this postseaon though. Against the Heat they have averaged 12.0, 17.0, and 0 (Ginobli didn't play in the games against the Heast this season) ppg respectively. The regular season ppg averages for James, Wade, and Bosh are 26.8, 21.2, and 16.6 respectively. They have averaged 26.2, 14.1 and 12.3 ppg respectively in this postseaon though. Against the Spurs they have averaged 23.0, 19.0, and 20.5 ppg respectively. Let's look at the postseason stats since those are the most current. Parker, Duncan and Ginobli had a combined 52.3 ppg or 26.15 points per half. James, Wade, and Bosh had a combined 52.6 ppg or 26.3 points per half. Those are really close numbers, so the tie option looks like the best option. I don't think you can read too much into the stats against the other team because Ginobli didn't play against the Heat this season, and the last time they met was March 31.
- Confidence: 70%
- NHL: Los Angeles Kings
- Chicago will be without their top defensive player due to a one-game suspension. He is vital to their defense, and his replacement has not played this entire postseason. This will be a big disadvantage for the Blackhawks, and further decreases their chances of spoilling the Kings perfect postseason home record. I just can't pick against the Kings at home in the postseason. I do think the Blackhawks will eventually win the series though.
- Confidence: 75%
- MLB: Atlanta Braves
- The Braves have won their last 5 games and 15 of their last 19, including a series sweep of the Dodgers a couple weeks ago. Since coming back from a broken collarbone, Grienke is 0 - 1 with an 8.78 ERA in three starts. He's also 0 - 1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts against the Braves. Hudson hasn't been too good on the road this season, but I just think the Braves will have more talent on the field since the Dodgers are still missing several players due to injury, and because of that, and their current hot streak, should win the game.
- Confidence: 70%
- MLB: Seattle Mariners
- The Mariners win alot on SFTC when at home. They also won 2 of 3 against the Yankees in New York earlier this season, including a 12 - 2 blowout in which Phil Hughes, the starter tonight, was the starting pitcher. Harang started off the season poorly, but has had a great last two outings.
- Confidence: 65%
- NBA: Spurs first to 10 points
- This is a toss up. I'd, wait to see the result at halftime. If either team is down by 5 or more, I'd pick that team though. The Heat often start out slow in the third quarter though.
- Confidence: 45%
- NBA: 47 points or more
- Perhaps a better way to look at this is if you think each team will score 23 points in the 4th. I think this will be a lower scoring game, but the first three quarters should give you a pretty good indication of the pace for this prop. I may end up changing this pick, but I feel pretty good about it right now.
- Confidence: 70%
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