SFTC picks for Friday, June 7

What a game!  Spurs take game 1 of the Finals and remain undefeated in game 1s of the NBA Finals!  It was a great game, and I think this should be a good series.  

There are some good picks today, so you should be able to get a good streak together going into the weekend.  Hopefully we can help you get there!  Good luck and thanks for visiting the site!

Our top stash picks:

1. MLB:  Baltimore Orioles
2. Other:  LSU wins by 2+ runs

Our picks for every prop:

1. Tennis:  Rafael Nadal
• Nadal beat Djokovic in 4 sets at this tournament last year.  He also beat him in 2 sets at Rome and Monte Carlo last year, all matches being played on clay surfaces.  Nadal's best surface is clay by far, and he has won the French Open a record 7 times.  These two have met 4 times at the French Open, and Djokivic has only won 1 set against Nadal in those 4 matches.  Djkovic did just beat Nadal in straight sets at Monte Carlo in April, I can't pick against Nadal at the French Open.
• Confidence:  75%
2. Tennis:  David Ferrer
• The last time Ferrer and Tsonga met was in November of last year, a match which Ferrer won in straight sets.  The last time they met on clay was at Rome in 2010, a match which Ferrer also won in straight sets.  Both Ferrer and Tsonga have won each match of this French open in straight sets and are playing very good tennis at the moment.  I really could see either one, but I'm giving Ferrer the edge, as he's much more experienced and is just a better player than Tsonga.  If Tsonga plays like he did against Federer though, he has a great chance of winning this match.
• Confidence:  55%
3. Soccer:  Congo DR Win or Draw
• These teams have only every played each other once, a 0 - 0 draw at Congo DR on March 24 of this year.  Congo DR has 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 matches while Libya has 1 draw and 4 losses.  The odds do favor Libya to win, but looking at their recent form, the draw seems like the clear choice.
• Confidence: 65%
4. Soccer:  Bosnia-Herzegovina Wins by 2+ goals
• I'm not even going to pretend that I know very much about either of these teams and who should win, because I have no idea.  I will tell you what stats I have found, but I wouldn't pick on this match unless I had a losing streak or a W3 or less.  Bosnia is at the top of their group with 13 points and a GD of +15.  Latvia is 5th in their group with 4 points and a goal differential of -3.  Bosnia has 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 while Latvia has 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5.  These teams have only met once, a match which Bosnia won 4 - 1 at home in September last year.
• Confidence: 55%
5. Golf:  David Toms or tie
• I'm not sure why Toms has the tie option here.  I would expect him to win outright.  Yesterday he shot a -3 and Poulter shot a -1.  I really don't think Poulter will outshoot Toms in the second round.
• Confidence: 65%
6. MLB:  Chicago Cubs
• I wouldn't be too surprised if the Pirates win, since they lead the season series 4 - 2.  However, I'm taking the Cubs in this one because they are slightly favored at -110, but mostly because they have Travis Wood on the mound.  He has been great against the Pirates, going 2 - 1 with a 1.53 ERA in three starts against them, giving up only 6 hits and striking out 18.  Liriano has been good for the Pirates, but he's never started at Wrigley field.
• Confidence: 65%
7. Soccer:  Czech Republic Win or Draw
• Italy leads the Czech Republic by 5 points in the table and currently sit in third place behind Bulgaria.  However, the Czech Republic have only ever lost once to Italy, and they are at home for this match.  A win would move them into second place ahead of Bulgaria, while a loss would surely make their chances to advance very slim.  
• Confidence:  55%
8. Soccer:  Russia Win or Draw
• The results of these two teams throughout the world cup qualifying have been very different.  Russia has been perfect, winning 4 games while scoring 8 goals and conceding none.  Portugal has been anything but perfect, sitting third in the group table.  If they hadn't tied it up with Israel in the 93rd minute, they would be last in their group.  Russia plays very good defense, and with Portugal's coach pretty much refusing to play any formation besides the 4-3-3, I think it will be hard for Portugal to score.
• Confidence: 70%
9. Soccer:  Argentina Win
• Argentina is clearly the best team in South America.  Columbia hasn't been good at soccer for many years, but they have definitely gotten better recently.  There is a great 30 for 30 film about Columbian soccer called The Two Escobars  that you should watch if you haven't already.  Argentina sits comfortably atop their group table.  A win for Columbia, though highly unlikely would bring them to within two points of Argentina though.  That would be a long, long shot though considering this match is at Argentina.  It is still not 100% certain if Messi will play.  If he does, you can lock this up for a win.  If he doesn't, I think Argentina still has plenty of talent to win.
• Confidence: 75%
10. Other:  LSU wins by 2+ runs
• These teams have not faced each other recently, at least not in the past two seasons.  LSU lost to Stony Brook in the super regional last year.  This game is the first of a best-of-three series, and since LSU hasn't played Oklahoma recently, it's hard to predict the result of this game.  The favorite has usually won and covered the spread on these NCAA baseball props though.  LSU is 55 - 9 on the season while Oklahoma is 43 - 19.  This is a home game for LSU, which is also a good reason to take them.
• Confidence: 75%
11. Other:  Cal State Fullerton wins by 2+ runs
• These teams have met twice during the regular season, once at UCLA and once at Cal State Fullerton.  Cal State won both games by 3 runs, 9 - 6, and 5 - 2.  Cal State Fullerton is 51 - 8 on the season while UCLA is 42 - 17.  This is the first of a best-of-three series, and Cal State is at home.  I don't see any reason to not take the 2+ win.  
• Confidence: 75%
12. Other:  3 hits or fewer
• This really could go either way, I'm just banking on it taking a few innings for the bats to warm up.  
• Confidence: 40%
13. MLB:  Texas Rangers
• These teams have not met this season, but the Rangers are clearly the better team.  Some of their stats are pretty similar though.  They are both 5 - 5 in their last 10 games.  The Rangers have a 18 - 14 away record while the Blue Jays have a 14 - 16 home record.  I give the edge to the Rangers here because Tepesch has had some solid starts recently, and the Rangers have better offense.
• Confidence: 60%
14. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals
• The Cardinals lead the season series 4 - 2, all games being played in St. Louis.  Now they travel to Cincinnati for a 3 game series.  Leake has been solid for the Reds, going 5 - 2 with 2.75 ERA on the season.  Wainwright has been better though, going 8 - 3 with a 2.33 ERA, and I trust him to lead the Cardinals, one of the best teams in baseball, to a win on the road. 
• Confidence: 65%
15. MLB:  Baltimore Orioles
• The Rays lead the season series 5 - 4 and are slightly favored at -108.  They also swept the Orioles in their last series.  I just can't take the Rays with Archer on the mound though, even if they are at home.  He made his season debut on Saturday in Cleveland and was tagged for 5 runs, 7 hits, and 3 walks.  So he's 0 - 1 with an 11.25  ERA on the season.  Hammel had a rough outing in his last start against the Tigers, getting ejected after hitting a batter, all this coming after he gave up three straight homers.  He has been good considering though, going 7 - 3 with a 5.43 ERA on the season.  The Orioles have been one of the hottest teams in baseball of late and should continue the trend tonight.
• Confidence: 75%
16. Other:  Any Other Competitor
• Octavious Freeman had the fastest qualifying time at 10.99.  There were two other runners at 11.00, and one at 11.02, with the rest at 11.14 or slower.  With three other runners so close to Freeman, and the rest not that far behind, I like my chances with AOC.
• Confidence: 50%
17. Other:  Charles Silmon(TCU)
• Silmon had a qualifying time of 9.92.  The second fastest time was 9.97 and the rest were 10.00 or slower.  There aren't nearly as many runners as close to Silmon like there are for Freeman in the women's 100M, so I'm taking Silmon in this one.
• Confidence: 50%
18. MLB:  Philadelphia Phillies
• With the Phillies favored at -140 and with Cliff Lee on the mound, the Phillies are definitely favored and should win.  Lee is 7 - 2 with a 2.45 ERA on the season while Figaro is 0 - 0 with a 3.67 ERA.
• Confidence: 70%
19. MLB:  Chicago White Sox
• Even as hot as Oakland is right now, I can't pick against Chris Sale at home.  He is 5 - 3 with a 2.44 ERA while Parker is 4 - 6 with a 4.90 ERA on the season.
• Confidence: 65%
20. NHL:  Pittsburgh Penguins
• Ok, I know I said I wouldn't pick the Penguins again if they lost, but with them being down now 0 - 3, I have to think they won't get swept, but will win and take the series back home.  They were simply outplayed in every way in the first two games.  They played much better and dominated most of the game on Wednesday, but lost a heart-breaker in double OT.  I'm giving them one more shot, as their playoff lives depend on it.
• Confidence: 65%
21. Soccer:  USA Win
• I don't think you can read too much into the USA's win over Germany.  Germany obviously didn't have all of their top players, and frankly, the USA just got lucky.  The USA won 1 - 0 the last time they played Jamaica, and in all liklihood will win this game, but sometimes the USA  knows just how to disappoint.
• Confidence: 50%
22. MLB:  Arizona Diamondbacks
• I'm pretty sure Corbin is the only undefeated pitcher left in baseball.  I may be wrong though.  At any rate, he is doing awesome this season, going 9 - 0 with a 2.06 ERA.  The Giants lead the season series 4 - 2, including sweeping the DBacks back in late April, but I think Corbin and company get it done at home tonight.
• Confidence: 55%
23. Soccer:  Mexico Win
• After drawing every match this year, Mexico finally got a win against Jamaica a few days ago.  Mexico has historically been dominant over Panama, but they haven't played them since 2009, so there is not anything recent to go by when analyzing this match. 
• Confidence: 50%
24. MLB:  Atlanta Braves
• Just going by my instincts on this one, but I'll probably do more of a writeup when more info becomes available.
• Confidence: 55%
25. Soccer:  Ecuador win or draw
• Ecuador owns the head to head battle, winning 4 times and drawing once.  They haven't met since 2011, a game which Ecuador won 2 - 0.  Ecuador is 2nd in their group table with 20 points and a GD of +6.  Peru is 7th in the table with 11 points and a GD of -4.  I really like Ecuador to at least draw here, even though the match is in Peru.  Peru always seems to lose after a win, and they just won against Panama.
• Confidence: 70%