Tuesday, July 16, 2013

SFTC picks for Tuesday, July 16

All props with writeups are now posted.  Good luck!

Our top stash pick:

  1. MLB:  Yes, 1+ home runs in innings 3 - 6
Our picks for every prop:
  1. Other:  Slovakia, France, or Belgium
    • The top 3 from these countries are Peter Sagan, Sylvain Chavanel, and Philippe Gilbert, but there are other riders from these countries that are capable of winning this.  I am by no means a cycling expert though and I wouldn't put a high streak on this.
    • Confidence:  40%
  2. Soccer:  BATE Borisov wins by 2+
    • Shakhter is a team from Kazakstan and are 5th in their league table with a record of 8 - 4 - 7 and a GD of +1.  Frankly I've never heard of Shakhter, but I don't think they've ever been in the Champions League.  I do know that BATE Borisov has, and they have played with and beaten some of the top teams in Europe such as Real Madrid and Bayern Munich.  BATE by 2+ at home seems like a great pick.
    • Confidence: 70%
  3. Soccer:  Italy Win/Draw/Lose by 1
    • These teams haven't played each other since 2009, so I don't think any of the head-to-head results matter much for this one.  Their recent results have been pretty comparable.  Sweden has played more matches this year than Italy.  In their last 10, Sweden has gone 5 - 4 - 1.  Italy has gone 5 - 2 - 3 in their last 10.  The odds definitely favor Sweden, but Italy should not lose by 2+.
    • Confidence:  60%
  4. Soccer:  Belize win or draw
    • I'm going against the grain on this one and taking the draw.  Both of these teams have a GD of -6 in this tournament and both have two losses.  Cuba is definitely favored to win, but so was Honduras when they lost to Trinidad and Tobago.  I just feel like this match has draw written all over it.
    • Confidence: 40%
  5. Soccer:  USA Win
    • Costa Rica has owned the USA recently, going 3 - 1 - 1 against them in their last 5.   However, the USA has really improved their game of late, and have looked good in this Gold Cup.  Both of these teams are basically through to the next round, so this match may end up in a draw, but I think with the USA being at home and needing to continue their momentum, a win for them is more likely.
    • Confidence: 65%
  6. MLB:  American League All-Stars
    • After looking at the lineups for both the American and National leagues, it seems pretty clear that the American league All-Stars should win.  They have the better starting pitcher in Max Sherzer and have the closer Mariano Rivera.  They have the likes of Chris Davis, Mike Trout, and Miguel Cabrera in their starting lineup as well.  
    • Confidence: 70%
  7. MLB:  Yes, both pitchers record 1+ Ks in the 1st inning
    • I think this has a pretty good liklihood, as both of these pitchers have a pretty decent strikeout number and in the 1st inning batters are just getting used to the pitchers.
    • Confidence: 60%
  8. MLB:  Yes, 1+ home runs in innings 3 - 6
    • If the All-Stars can't hit home runs, aint nobody can.  If the no option wins I will quit Streak for the Cash. 
    • Confidence: 85%
  9. MLB:  7 or 8 plate appearances in the 8th inning
    • This option gives an average of 4 plate appearances per side.  Not much else to say about this one.
    • Confidence: 60%

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