SFTC Picks for Friday, July 12

We had a great day on Wednesday, going 10 - 2!  We've missed a couple of days this month because of so many other things going on.  For not having much time to focus on this, things have gone pretty well.  I just can't wait until football season!  I'll try to get the football site going soon, so watch out for announcements for that.  

I don't really like any of the picks for today, so if you have a high streak I suggest sitting the day out.

Our top stash pick:

1. MLB:  Boston Red Sox

Our picks for every prop:

1. Other:  Any Other Cyclist
• In case you didn't notice, this is exactly the same prop as yesterday morning.  Kittel finished 1st and Cavendish 2nd.  If I'm not mistaken, the favorite hasn't won two consecutive props, and for either of these guys to win two days in a row I think would be really tough.  I really don't know much about cycling though, and I definitely wouldn't put a streak higher than W5 on this.
• Confidence: 50%
2. Soccer:  Jablonec Win or Draw
• These teams have faced off 26 times dating back to 1998.  Of those, Plzen has won 10 times, Jablonec has won 10 times, and they have drawn 6 times.  So Jablonec won this prop 16 of the 26 times they faced each other.  Plzen did win the most recent matchup on the road, but Jablonec won the matchup before that on the road as well.  The odds do favor Plzen, but given the history between these two and each team's recent form, I'm taking the draw.
• Confidence: 60%
3. Golf:  Keegan Bradley
• Howell III shot a -3 in round 1 and Bradley a -2.  Usually the opposite happens in subsequent rounds of golf, so that's what I'm going with.
• Confidence: 30%
4. MLB:  St. Louis Cardinals
• A ton of people lost with the Cardinals last night, including the leader with a W19!  I'm really not sold on them tonight, but given the way the season series has gone, I'm taking them here.  The Cardinals lead the season series 5 - 2, and the pattern has gone like this: Cubs, Cards, Cards, Cubs, Cards, Cards, Cubs.  So given the pattern, the Cards should win this one.  It does make me nervous that Kelly is winless so far this season though.  Villanueava hasn't been too much better though, going 2 - 4 with a 3.63 ERA on the season. 
• Confidence: 45%
5. Soccer:  2 goals or fewer
• These teams have a long history dating back to 1968.  They have played each other 17 times since then, and 3 or more goals have been scored 9 of those 17 times.  Their most recent matchup was in December of 2012 and the result was a 0 - 0 draw.  So far each team has played one game in this tournament.  Haiti lost 2 - 0 and Trinidad and Tobago drew 2 - 2.  I don't think you can count on Haiti scoring in this match, so the real question is if Trinidad and Tobago will score 3 or more.  
• Confidence: 60%
6. MLB:  Kansas City Royals
• After losing a few games, the Indians finally got a win yesterday.  Now they welcome the Royals to town, who they currently have a 2 1/2 game lead over in the AL Central.  The season series between these two is tied at 5 - 5.  The Royals starts with Bruce Chen who is 3 - 0 with a 2.41 ERA on the season and is 3 - 0 with a 2.16 ERA in four starts in Cleveland (going back to 2010).  Corey Kluber on the other hand is 6 - 5 with a 4.23 ERA on the season but is just 0 - 1 with a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts.
• Confidence: 60%
7. MLB:  Pittsburgh Pirates
• Pittsburgh leads the season series 3 - 1, and all of those games were played in New York.  Now the Pirates welcome the Mets, who are coming off of a series sweep of the Giants and have won their last 4.  It may be hard for the Pirates to get a win against Hefner because he has a 1.64 ERA since June 4 and has allowed only 1 run in 6 of his last 7 starts.  I think they can do it, though I'm not super confident about it. Morton is winless at home against the Mets, but the Pirates are favorites at -142 and are at home, so I'll take a chance.
• Confidence: 45%
8. MLB:  Atlanta Braves
• There's nothing really convincing me to take the Reds in this one.  The Braves lead the season series 3 - 1, and this and all remaing games between these two will be played in Atlanta.  The Braves are the favorites at -133, both pitchers have pretty similar numbers, and the Braves are at home.  
• Confidence: 65%
9. Other:  Montreal Alouettes
• I didn't realize that Dan Hawkins was the coach of the Alouettes until I watched them play a few days ago.  He was the coach at Boise State while I was a student there.  Anyway, neither team has been great this year.  Monteal is 1 - 3 and Calgary 2 - 2.  These teams haven't played each other this year, but each won at home last year.
• Confidence: 60%
10. Other:  Touchdown
• The no score option will not happen, so this is basically a touchdown vs. field goal or rouge. This is pretty much a toss-up prop, but touchdowns occur much more frequently than rouges or field goals in the CFL. (most football actually)
• Confidence: 50%
11. Soccer:  El Salvador Win or Draw
• The last 5 times these teams have met head to head, Honduras won 3 times and they drew twice.  The most recent match on January 18 was 1 - 1 draw.  
• Confidence: 65%
12. MLB:  Boston Red Sox
• Boston leads the season series 2 - 1.  Lackey is 6 - 6 with a 2.80 ERA on the season.  Parker is also 6 - 6 but with a 4.04 ERA.  
• Confidence: 65%
13. MLB:  Seattle Mariners
• The Angels lead the season series 6 - 4, but the Mariners have won quite a lot when at home on SFTC.  Also, Saunders has had great success against the Angels hitters, with only a 1.93 ERA in two starts against them.  Jerome Williams is 0 - 2 with a 8.47 ERA over his last 4 starts, and hasn't made it past the 4th inning in his last two.
• Confidence: 60%
14. MLB:  San Diego Padres
• To say that the Giants have struggled lately is an understatement.  They got a much needed win yesterday, but I don't think it lasts.  The Padres are only slight favorites at -103.  I just don't trust the Giants at all.
• Confidence: 60%